2015 Economic Forecast Report

More than 600 business and community leaders joined together for our 2015 Economic Forecast Breakfast on Jan. 15. This event shares the boots-on-the-ground knowledge and insight from both business and community leaders, helping us gain a better understanding of the current economic conditions in our region.

Overall, the forecasters who contributed to our 2015 Economic Forecast Report shared a deep sense of optimism that our region is growing steadily. In 2015, 71 percent of our forecasters project overall sales and revenue growth — the highest level of business confidence we have seen from our members since before the recession. Expectations for corporate profits are up 5 percent from last year, to 54 percent. Additionally, 59 percent anticipate expanding products and services in 2015, up 6 percent from 2014 projections, and 51 percent expect an increase in jobs and hiring, up 12 percent from last year. 

Yet in spite of these promising expectations, the truth is our economy hasn’t recovered at the same pace as the rest of the country. Private job growth in the region’s three major metropolitan areas lags well behind that of upstate New York peers. Private-sector employment in November was only 0.1 percent higher than in 2013, compared to a U.S. growth rate of 2.3 percent, and the regional workforce declined by 23,000 people over the past 12 months, more than half of our total workforce contraction since January 2007. 

Participants across all industry sectors consistently shared concerns over persistent challenges — managing benefits costs, navigating an increasingly complex local, state, and national regulatory environment, accessing capital, and attracting and retaining skilled talent. 

In her keynote remarks, Becca Dernberger, vice president and general manager of Manpower’s Northeast Division, provided a detailed picture of some of these workforce challenges, a key market lever of our economy, and discussed ways communities like ours might address them. 

At the same time we were having these discussions, Gov. Andrew Cuomo was announcing a $1.5 billion Upstate New York Economic Revitalization Competition. With its strong track record of identifying priorities that best leverage our region’s unique strengths, this is a major opportunity for our region. To be successful, we must collaboratively develop a cohesive strategy to invest in industries with the greatest potential to attract private investment and create good-paying, sustainable jobs. Our strategy must also build our human capital and connect people with those jobs, leverage our region’s academic and research excellence, and invest in infrastructure in a way that grows a modern and lasting economy.

We need and want the best of your thinking in each of these areas. I invite you to share your creative ideas on how we can grow our assets in a way that creates economic prosperity for all. You can join the community conversation using the hashtag #ThinkBigCNY. 

Together, we can make this year’s economic forecast an economic reality.          

Robert M. Simpson is president and CEO of CenterState CEO, the primary economic-development organization for Central New York. This editorial is drawn and edited from the “CEO Focus” email newsletter the organization sent out on Jan. 16.