New York manufacturing index rises in June but remains negative

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey general business-conditions index rose 10 points in June but stayed in negative territory at -1.2.

The index — the monthly gauge on New York’s manufacturing sector — had declined significantly in May, falling 36 points to -11.6.

The June reading — based on firms responding to the survey — indicates business activity “was little changed” in New York state, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said in its June 15 report. A negative reading on the index indicates a decline in the sector, while a positive number points to expansion or growth in manufacturing activity. 

The survey found 28 percent of respondents reported that conditions had improved over the month, while 29 percent said that conditions had worsened, per the New York Fed.

Survey details

After plunging below zero the prior month, the new orders and shipments indexes climbed into positive territory in June, pointing to a “small increase” in both areas, the New York Fed said. 

The unfilled-orders index fell to -4.3, its first negative reading in over a year, indicating that unfilled orders “shrank.” The delivery-times index fell 6 points to 14.5, suggesting that delivery times lengthened, though at the “slowest pace in over a year.” 

The inventories index rose 9 points to 17.1, indicating that inventories expanded.

The index for number of employees increased 5 points to 19.0, pointing to a solid increase in employment, and the average workweek index came in at 6.4, indicating a small increase in hours worked. 

The prices-paid index rose 5 points to 78.6, several points below its recent record high, and the prices-received index edged down to 43.6, signaling “ongoing substantial increases” in both input prices and selling prices.

Optimism about future conditions was “subdued” for a third consecutive month. The index for future business conditions fell 4 points to 14.0. 

Delivery times are expected to decline over the next six months, as are unfilled orders, while increases in prices and employment are expected to continue in the months ahead, the New York Fed said. Capital spending and technology spending plans remained firm.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York distributes the Empire State Manufacturing Survey on the first day of each month to the same pool of about 200 manufacturing executives in New York. On average, about 100 executives return responses.