New York manufacturing index bounces back in November

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey general business-conditions index rose 11 points to 30.9 in November after falling in the prior month.

The index — the monthly gauge on New York’s manufacturing sector — had declined 15 points to 19.8 in October, “pointing to a slower pace of growth” that month. It had climbed 16 points to 34.3 in September.

The November reading of 30.9 — based on firms responding to the survey — indicates business activity in New York “grew strongly in New York State,” the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said in its Nov. 15 report. Economists had forecast an index number of 22 in November, according to a survey by The Wall Street Journal.

A positive reading indicates expansion or growth in manufacturing activity, while a negative index number points to a decline in the sector. 

The survey found 43 respondents reported that conditions had improved over the month, while nearly 12 percent said that conditions had worsened, the New York Fed said.

Survey details

The new-orders index rose 5 points to 28.8, and the shipments index “shot up” 19 points to 28.2, indicating “strong growth” in both orders and shipments, the New York Fed said. 

The unfilled-orders index edged down to 12.7. The delivery-times index came in at 32.2, indicating “significantly longer” delivery times. Inventories increased modestly.

The index for number of employees rose 9 points to 26.0, a record high, and the average-workweek index increased 8 points to 23.1, pointing to “strong” gains in employment and hours worked. 

The prices-paid index edged up 4 points to 83.0, and the prices-received index moved up 7 points to a record high of 50.8, signaling “ongoing substantial increases” in both input prices and selling prices.

Firms were less optimistic about the six-month outlook than they were last month, with the index for future business conditions falling 15 points to 36.9. 

The indexes for future new orders and shipments fell to similar levels. 

Longer delivery times, higher prices, and increases in employment are all expected in the months ahead. 

The capital-expenditures index edged up 3 points to 34.7, and the technology-spending index ticked up to 28.0, suggesting that firms plan “significant increases” in both capital spending and technology spending.

The New York Fed distributes the Empire State Manufacturing Survey on the first day of each month to the same pool of about 200 manufacturing executives in New York. On average, about 100 executives return responses.