At the time of this writing, one of the biggest issues surrounding the COVID-19 crisis has been the question of when to ease social-distancing restrictions and reopen states and regions for business. There has been a flurry of public-opinion polling on that issue in recent weeks, so this seemed like a good time to sort […]
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At the time of this writing, one of the biggest issues surrounding the COVID-19 crisis has been the question of when to ease social-distancing restrictions and reopen states and regions for business. There has been a flurry of public-opinion polling on that issue in recent weeks, so this seemed like a good time to sort through the results of a number of polls and try to piece together an aggregate picture of what the data is telling us.
It should be noted that the polls cited in this piece were conducted in late April and represent snapshots of opinion at that moment. In a situation as rapidly changing as the coronavirus crisis, opinions are subject to shift as events unfold.
Links to summaries of the polls cited are provided as endnotes.
The Central New York Business Journal conducted a single-question poll using a non-probability sample of cnybj.com website visitors and readers of our Daily News Alerts emails, which asked, “Regarding the COVID-19 economic restart, what do you think is the bigger risk: reopening too soon, endangering public health; or reopening too late, endangering the economy and social order?”
The data, which was collected during the final week of April and published in our May 4 edition, revealed that 44 percent of the 126 poll respondents felt the bigger risk was reopening too early. While that figure is a minority of respondents, I personally interpret the roughly equal divide as a signal of general caution given that a large number of CNYBJ readers are business owners and managers whose businesses have been placed under great strain or, in some cases, effectively shut down by the New York State on PAUSE restrictions.
Recent national polls have tended to show majorities supporting a “go-slow” approach.
An NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist Poll1 of American adults released on April 29 suggested an overall mood of caution. A release summarizing the findings stated, “Ninety-one percent of Americans think it is a bad idea to allow people to attend sporting events without further testing. 85 percent do not think it is wise for schools to reopen, and 80 percent think it is a bad idea for restaurants to allow customers to dine in. 65 percent of residents consider it a bad idea for people to go back to work without further testing.”
The Marist poll findings indicated a partisan divide on the issue of returning to work. The release noted, “Eighty-four percent of Democrats and 65 percent of independents want to continue stay-at-home policies while 51 percent of Republicans think it would be a good idea to get back to business.”
Caution about returning to work may be due to fears that America does not yet have the upper hand against the virus. Findings from a Rassmussen Reports poll2 released on May 1 showed that, “Just 31 percent of American adults believe America is winning the war against the coronavirus.”
The FiveThirtyEight website, which aggregates numerous national poll results on various issues, reported on May 5 that 69 percent of Americans are “very” or “somewhat” concerned that “they, someone in their family, or someone else they know will become infected with the coronavirus.”3
Not surprisingly, considering the magnitude and anxiety caused, the crisis is proving to be a major driver of opinions regarding political leaders and public institutions.
New Yorkers so far are strongly supporting Gov. Andrew Cuomo through the crisis, according to a poll of registered New York state voters by the Siena College Research Institute (SCRI)4 released on April 27. SCRI’s news release for the poll reported, “[Cuomo’s] favorability rating is 77-21 percent, up from 71-23 percent last month, matching his highest ever in February 2011. His job performance rating is 71-28 percent, up from 63-35 percent last month, his best ever. By a 78-16 percent margin, voters say they trust Cuomo over President Donald Trump to make a determination about opening New York…”
Perhaps the most dramatic finding of the SCRI poll is that Cuomo, who has tended to be a polarizing figure throughout his tenure as governor, was viewed favorably by even a majority of Republicans. “He is viewed favorably by 90 percent of Democrats, 73 percent of independents and 53 percent of Republicans, his first time favorable with Republicans in more than six years,” said Siena College pollster Steven Greenberg.
Cuomo has also garnered positive opinion nationally. A Gallup poll5 of American adults that was released on May 1 showed that 67 percent approved of Cuomo’s handling of the crisis. That was higher than the approval for President Donald Trump (50 percent), but below Dr. Anthony Fauci (79 percent).
That same Gallup poll reported that Americans overwhelmingly approve how hospitals in their area (93 percent) and U.S. hospitals in general (92 percent) are handling the crisis. Positive ratings were also given to respondents’ employers (89 percent), schools and daycare centers (87 percent), government health agencies (78 percent), and state governments (78 percent).
Two of the most persistently unpopular institutions in American life had less than 50 percent approval for their handling of the crisis in Gallup’s poll. Congress was at 48 percent, and coming in at last place among measured institutions, with 41 percent approval, was the news media.
National opinions of the news media notwithstanding, the Central New York Business Journal will continue to dedicate our editorial resources to coverage of the crisis and its impact on the business community in our region. That will include continued coverage of relevant polls and of our own in-house opinion research in issues to come.
Endnotes:
1. http://maristpoll.marist.edu/4-29-npr-pbs-newshour-marist-poll-results-analysis/#sthash.ZdGme86o.dpbs
2.https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/lifestyle/coronavirus/only_31_think_u_s_winning_virus_war_food_concerns_unchanged
3. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/coronavirus-polls/?ex_cid=rrpromo
4. https://scri.siena.edu/2020/04/27/coronavirus-pandemic-pushes-cuomo-to-record-high-ratings-voters-trust-cuomo-over-trump-on-ny-reopening-78-16/
5. https://news.gallup.com/poll/309614/health-institutions-rated-best-covid-response.aspx
Vance Marriner is research director at the Central New York Business Journal and a part-time instructor of marketing at SUNY Oswego’s School of Business.