N.Y. manufacturing index March report points to growth slowdown

The Empire State Manufacturing survey general business-conditions index fell 5 points to 3.7 in March, the third consecutive monthly reading below 10.

The index result suggests that growth has “remained quite a bit slower” so far this year than it was for most of 2018, the New York Fed said in its March 15 report.

The index rose 5 points to 8.8 in February after falling eight points to 3.9 in January, “its lowest level in well over a year.”

The March reading, based on firms responding to the survey, indicates “business activity grew only slightly in New York,” the New York Fed said.

A positive number indicates expansion or growth in manufacturing activity, while a negative number shows a decline in the sector.

The survey found 30 percent of respondents reported that conditions had improved over the month, while 25 percent said that conditions had worsened, the New York Fed said.

Survey details

The new-orders index fell 5 points to 3.0, indicating that orders grew at a “slower pace” than last month, the New York Fed said. 

The shipments index declined 3 points to 7.7, a level indicating that shipments “grew modestly, though representing the lowest reading in more than two years.” 

Unfilled orders inched higher, and delivery times and inventories were little changed.

The index for number of employees climbed 10 points to 13.8, pointing to an increase in employment levels, though the average-workweek index turned negative for the first time since 2016. 

The prices-paid index moved higher, rising 7 points to 34.1, indicating a “pickup” in input-price increases. The prices-received index fell 5 points to 18.1, suggesting that selling-price increases slowed.

Optimism about the six-month outlook was “slightly lower” than last month. 

The index for future business conditions edged down 3 points to 29.6. The indexes for future new orders and shipments were also somewhat below last month’s levels. 

Firms expected “solid” increases in employment and hours worked in the months ahead. The capital-expenditures index was little changed at 28.3, and the technology-spending index came in at 20.3.

The New York Fed distributes the Empire State Manufacturing Survey on the first day of each month to the same pool of about 200 manufacturing executives in New York. On average, about 100 executives return responses.