SYRACUSE, N.Y. — Syracuse basketball (17-8, 8-4 ACC) has no game this weekend, and that allows for time to ponder just where the Orange stand following their disappointing 73-58 loss at North Carolina State on Wednesday night.
Syracuse won’t take the court for another game until next Wednesday night at home against the Louisville Cardinals.
Where does Syracuse stand?
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The Orange are currently ranked No. 48 in the NCAA’s NET rankings (with a 24th ranked strength of schedule). Syracuse is ranked even better in other measures the NCAA selection committee sees (34 in KPI, 41 in SOR, 37 in BPI, 44 in Pomeroy, and 39 in the Sagarin ratings).The Cuse has assembled two wins in Quadrant 1 and four wins in Quadrant 2, for a total of six wins in the two highest classifications of victory available under the NCAA selection committee’s quadrant system of evaluating teams. By way of comparison, the Orange had four Quadrant 1 wins and three Quadrant 2 victories, for a total of seven, last season when Syracuse was the last at-large team selected for the tournament.
Bottom line, if the tournament field was finalized today, I believe Syracuse would unquestionably be in it. The website bracketmatrix.com, which compiles and averages dozens of bracket projections and prognostications from across the internet, has Syracuse in the tournament on all 106 brackets currently in the matrix. The Orange are, on average, a 9 seed right now and listed ahead of 12 other bubble teams.
The problem is the tournament field in not picked today and Syracuse faces a daunting remaining schedule.
What’s coming up?
The NC State game was the first of what is considered the hard part of Syracuse’s ACC schedule. And on paper, it was the easiest of four straight challenging games. The Orange flopped against the Wolfpack
Now, Syracuse faces three straight games against Top 20 opponents — vs. No. 16 Louisville on Feb. 20, vs. 2nd ranked Duke on Feb. 23, and at No. 8 North Carolina on Feb. 26 — over a seven-day span.
After that, Syracuse gets a reprieve with a March 2 contest at Wake Forest, which currently sits in 14th place in the ACC standings and is ranked 196th in the national NET rankings. Then it’s back to difficulty for the Orange with No. 4 Virginia at the Carrier Dome on March 4 and Clemson on the road on March 9.
What do the Orange need to do?
I believe Syracuse needs to find a way to get at least two more ACC wins in its last six contests to secure an NCAA bid. Two wins would get the Orange to 19-12, 10-8 ACC. On paper, beating Wake Forest and Clemson would be easiest, but wouldn’t pack the same résumé-boosting punch as a win over one of the ranked teams. Still, I think it would be enough, given Syracuse’s full body of work and how it compares to other NCAA bubble teams.
If the Orange were to secure a third win over one of the ranked teams, then I feel they would be a lock to make March Madness. They’d also be a lock with two wins, if one of them was over a ranked team instead of Clemson.
Contact Rombel at arombel@cnybj.com
Photos by Adam Rombel/BJNN
