New York state consumers’ view of the real-estate market is “strongly positive” for the second straight quarter, and the expectation is that this market is “here to stay.” That’s according to Donald Levy, director of the Siena (College) Research Institute (SRI), which released its latest survey report of consumer real-estate sentiment in the Empire State […]
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New York state consumers’ view of the real-estate market is “strongly positive” for the second straight quarter, and the expectation is that this market is “here to stay.”
That’s according to Donald Levy, director of the Siena (College) Research Institute (SRI), which released its latest survey report of consumer real-estate sentiment in the Empire State on Oct. 23.
SRI’s numbers indicate that real estate is squarely in the “thriving zone” in which consumers see steady growth in real-estate values and both buyers and sellers are coming out ahead today and tomorrow, Levy says.
Property values have rebounded, so it’s a good time to buy, and the anticipation among consumer is that buying a home a smart investment, he adds.
“It’s a fair transaction, sellers are getting a fair price, buyers are paying a fair price, so that’s what we’re describing as a thriving zone,” Levy says.
Any advantage that buyers previously held over sellers is now gone, he says. The survey indicates New Yorkers see the statewide real-estate market as a “win-win,” Levy says.
The overall current real-estate sentiment score among New Yorkers in the third quarter of 2013 is 17.7, up 4.2 points from last quarter, according to the SRI data.
The figure is also above the point where equal percentages of citizens feel optimistic and pessimistic about the housing market.
Survey respondents are beginning to say that property values and the overall state of the real-estate market have improved from where they were, Levy says.
“They sense that it’s [the market] strong, and their projection for the future is that it will continue to strengthen,” he says.
Looking forward, the overall future real-estate sentiment score is 24.8, down from 29.6 last quarter, SRI said.
The sentiment figure also indicates New Yorkers expect the overall real-estate market and the value of property to increase over the next year.
Consumers also see the present as an improved time to sell with a score above breakeven at 12.2, up 5 points from last quarter, according to SRI.
At the same time, they also see it as a very good time to buy with a positive score of 12.5, the survey found.
The overall current real-estate sentiment score among upstate New Yorkers in the third quarter is 19.4, up 1.1 points from last quarter. The overall future real-estate sentiment score is 16.9, down 9.2 points from the second quarter.
The future projection is down a little bit from where it was a quarter ago, but it still positive, Levy notes. The figure indicates a “leveling out,” he says.
The research for the sentiment survey has always aimed to find a situation in which sellers are no longer are sitting at a disadvantaged position relative to buyers.
“It is encouraging that people are saying, whether it’s upstate or statewide, that selling conditions have improved, and anticipate that they’re going to be better in the future, but the rate of improvement for sellers is modulating,” Levy says.
Levy acknowledges the positive feeling about the New York real-estate market remains “subject to conditions.” For example, a boost in interest rates could negatively affect the current sentiment. And, any decisions from the federal government that affect the economy or the ongoing recovery could also have a negative impact, he adds.
In the survey calculations, a sentiment score of zero (0) in any category reflects a breakeven point at which the survey measured equal levels of optimism and pessimism among the population relative to the overall market, or buying or selling real estate, according to SRI.
Scores can range from an absolute low of -100 to a high of 100, but scores below -50 or above +50 are both rare and extreme, SRI said.
SRI conducted the survey of consumer real-estate sentiment throughout July, August, and September by random telephone calls to 2,175 New York state residents age 18 or older. As the sentiment scores are developed through a series of calculations, “margin of error” does not apply, SRI says.
Contact Reinhardt at ereinhardt@cnybj.com
