Upstate consumer sentiment climbs in June

Consumer sentiment in upstate New York rose three points to 76.9 in June, according to the latest monthly survey from the Siena (College) Research Institute (SRI).

Upstate’s overall-sentiment index of 76.9 is a combination of the current-sentiment and future-sentiment components. Upstate’s current-sentiment index of 81.5 is up 1.5 points from May, while the future-sentiment level rose 3.9 points to 74, according to the SRI data.

The Upstate figure was 1.8 points below the statewide consumer-sentiment level of 78.7, which was up 1.5 points from April, SRI said.

New York’s consumer-sentiment index was 5.4 points lower than the figure for the entire nation of 84.1, which was down 0.4 points from May, as measured by the University of Michigan’s consumer-sentiment index.

For New York consumers, it’s a “very strange period where bad news is good news,” Douglas Lonnstrom, professor of statistics and finance at Siena College and SRI founding director, says in an interview.

In explaining his analysis, Lonnstrom says the national economy has been “weak” since 2008, meaning interest rates have been “incredibly low.”

In addition, the federal government has used a stimulus program to boost the economy, and energy prices have remained “relatively stable and low,” Lonnstrom adds.

He believes consumers and observers are viewing the weakened national economy as a chance to keep the interest rates and energy prices low.

Lonnstrom also contends some people believe the interest rates and energy prices will rise if the national economy expands again.

“The consumers almost see this negative news as being good for them because it’s keeping prices low,” Lonnstrom says.

And that feeling is reflected in the comparison of the sentiment data over the last five years.

When compared with the previous three years, the state’s overall-confidence sentiment of 78.7 is up 4.2 points from June 2012, up 3.8 points from June 2011, and has increased 15.3 points compared to June 2010, according to the SRI data. The sentiment index measured 52.6 in June 2008.

The overall, current, and future-sentiment indexes are up between 23 and 27 points compared to the same month in 2008, Lonnstrom says.

“People are feeling better right now than they have been,” he adds.

Besides determining consumer sentiment, SRI’s monthly survey also examines respondents’ plans for buying big-ticket items in the next six months.

In June, buying plans were up 4.5 points to 13.6 percent for cars and trucks; rose 4.5 points to 18.3 percent for computers; increased 2.8 points to 24.6 percent for furniture; inched up 0.2 points to 4.1 percent for homes; and rose 2 points to 19.6 percent for major-home improvements, according to the Siena data.

Gas and food prices

In SRI’s monthly analysis of gas and food prices, 68 percent of upstate respondents said the price of gas was having a serious impact on their monthly budgets, which is down from 69 percent in May and unchanged from the 68 percent figure in April.

In addition, 56 percent of statewide respondents indicated concern about the price of gas, down from 57 percent in May, according to SRI.

“Not a lot of movement … but certainly better than going up,” Lonnstrom says, noting that consumers have become accustomed to paying gas prices that are between $3 and $4 per gallon.

When asked about food prices, 69 percent of Upstate respondents indicated the price of groceries was having a serious impact on their finances, down from 71 percent in May. About 67 percent of statewide respondents expressed concern about their food bills, down from 68 percent in May.

SRI conducted its consumer-sentiment survey in May by random telephone calls to 800 New York residents over the age of 18.

As consumer sentiment is expressed as an index number developed after statistical calculations to a series of questions, “margin of error” does not apply, SRI says. Buying plans, which are listed as a percentage based on answers to specific questions, have a margin of error of 3.5 points, according to SRI.

Contact Reinhardt at ereinhardt@cnybj.com

Consumer sentiment in upstate New York rose three points to 76.9 in June, according to the latest monthly survey from the Siena (College) Research Institute (SRI).

Upstate’s overall-sentiment index of 76.9 is a combination of the current-sentiment and future-sentiment components. Upstate’s current-sentiment index of 81.5 is up 1.5 points from May, while the future-sentiment level rose 3.9 points to 74, according to the SRI data.

The Upstate figure was 1.8 points below the statewide consumer-sentiment level of 78.7, which was up 1.5 points from April, SRI said.

New York’s consumer-sentiment index was 5.4 points lower than the figure for the entire nation of 84.1, which was down 0.4 points from May, as measured by the University of Michigan’s consumer-sentiment index.

For New York consumers, it’s a “very strange period where bad news is good news,” Douglas Lonnstrom, professor of statistics and finance at Siena College and SRI founding director, says in an interview.

In explaining his analysis, Lonnstrom says the national economy has been “weak” since 2008, meaning interest rates have been “incredibly low.”

In addition, the federal government has used a stimulus program to boost the economy, and energy prices have remained “relatively stable and low,” Lonnstrom adds.

He believes consumers and observers are viewing the weakened national economy as a chance to keep the interest rates and energy prices low.

Lonnstrom also contends some people believe the interest rates and energy prices will rise if the national economy expands again.

“The consumers almost see this negative news as being good for them because it’s keeping prices low,” Lonnstrom says.

And that feeling is reflected in the comparison of the sentiment data over the last five years.

When compared with the previous three years, the state’s overall-confidence sentiment of 78.7 is up 4.2 points from June 2012, up 3.8 points from June 2011, and has increased 15.3 points compared to June 2010, according to the SRI data. The sentiment index measured 52.6 in June 2008.

The overall, current, and future-sentiment indexes are up between 23 and 27 points compared to the same month in 2008, Lonnstrom says.

“People are feeling better right now than they have been,” he adds.

Besides determining consumer sentiment, SRI’s monthly survey also examines respondents’ plans for buying big-ticket items in the next six months.

In June, buying plans were up 4.5 points to 13.6 percent for cars and trucks; rose 4.5 points to 18.3 percent for computers; increased 2.8 points to 24.6 percent for furniture; inched up 0.2 points to 4.1 percent for homes; and rose 2 points to 19.6 percent for major-home improvements, according to the Siena data.

Gas and food prices

In SRI’s monthly analysis of gas and food prices, 68 percent of upstate respondents said the price of gas was having a serious impact on their monthly budgets, which is down from 69 percent in May and unchanged from the 68 percent figure in April.

In addition, 56 percent of statewide respondents indicated concern about the price of gas, down from 57 percent in May, according to SRI.

“Not a lot of movement … but certainly better than going up,” Lonnstrom says, noting that consumers have become accustomed to paying gas prices that are between $3 and $4 per gallon.

When asked about food prices, 69 percent of Upstate respondents indicated the price of groceries was having a serious impact on their finances, down from 71 percent in May. About 67 percent of statewide respondents expressed concern about their food bills, down from 68 percent in May.

SRI conducted its consumer-sentiment survey in May by random telephone calls to 800 New York residents over the age of 18.

As consumer sentiment is expressed as an index number developed after statistical calculations to a series of questions, “margin of error” does not apply, SRI says. Buying plans, which are listed as a percentage based on answers to specific questions, have a margin of error of 3.5 points, according to SRI.

Contact Reinhardt at ereinhardt@cnybj.com