Upstate New York consumer sentiment tumbles in July

International headlines overwhelmed the domestic economic storylines in July, leaving upstate New York consumers more hesitant than they’ve been in 2014 to spend money on big-tickets items.

That’s the assessment of one analyst following the release of a monthly survey on confidence among New York consumers, including those in Upstate.

Consumer sentiment in upstate New York plummeted 8.2 points to 68.3 in July, according to the latest survey the Siena (College) Research Institute (SRI) released Aug. 6.

Upstate’s overall-sentiment index of 68.3 is a combination of the current sentiment and future-sentiment components. The region’s current-sentiment index of 77.3 decreased 6.4 points from June, while the future-sentiment level fell 9.3 at 62.5.

Upstate’s overall sentiment was 5.2 points below the statewide consumer-sentiment level of 73.5, which fell 5.3 points from June, SRI said.

New York state’s consumer-sentiment index was 8.3 points lower than the July figure of 81.8 for the entire nation, which slipped 0.7 points from June, as measured by the University of Michigan’s consumer-sentiment index.

The results for the July survey were “fairly dismal,” says Douglas Lonnstrom, professor of statistics and finance at Siena College and SRI founding director.

“I was actually quite surprised that they [the index figures] dropped so much,” says Lonnstrom.

At 73.5, New York’s consumer-sentiment level hadn’t registered that low since the 73.3 figure posted in November 2013, he added.

The economic news “wasn’t terrible” in July with the stock market climbing above the 17,000 mark, gas prices fell, and the economic forecasts weren’t “real bad,” says Lonnstrom.

“And yet every [sentiment] number is down [in the July survey],” he adds, noting index levels for the state’s regions and demographic groups, including gender, age range, income level, and political-party affiliation.

Lonnstrom contends the international headlines in Ukraine, including the downed Malaysian Airlines jet, and the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas “just kind of made consumers very uncertain and very worried.”

When compared with the previous three years, the state’s overall-confidence sentiment of 73.5 is down 1.9 points from July 2013 and July 2012, and has increased 10.5 points compared to July 2011, according to the SRI data. The sentiment index measured 64.3 in July 2009.

In July, buying plans were up 1.2 points to 13 percent for cars and trucks, increased 2.4 points to 22.1 percent for furniture, and rose 0.8 points to 5.1 percent for homes.

Buying plans fell 1 point to 33.1 percent for consumer electronics and slid 6.6 points to 14.3 percent for major home improvements.

Gas and food prices
In SRI’s monthly analysis of gas and food prices, 59 percent of upstate respondents said the price of gas was having a serious impact on their monthly budgets, which is down from 65 percent in June and 67 percent in May.

In addition, 51 percent of statewide respondents indicated concern about the price of gas, down from 54 percent in June and 58 percent in May, according to SRI.

“The gas price news was good [in July], and yet, the world news just overwhelmed it,” says Lonnstrom. 

When asked about food prices, 68 percent of upstate respondents indicated the price of groceries was having a serious impact on their finances, down from 73 percent in June.

At the same time, 67 percent of statewide respondents indicated concern about the price of food, down 1 percentage point from June, according to the SRI data.

Food prices aren’t nearly as “volatile” as gas prices, says Lonnstrom.

“Gas is one commodity, so if I went in last week and it cost me $40 to fill my tank and this week, it cost me $50, I feel that and sense that,” he says. 

In their trips to the grocery store, consumers are buying several items which may or may not have fluctuating prices. It takes “much longer” for an effect in the food-price chain to impact the numbers that much. 

SRI conducted its survey of consumer sentiment in July by random telephone calls to 629 New York residents over the age of 18. 

As consumer sentiment is expressed as an index number developed after statistical calculations to a series of questions, “margin of error” does not apply, according to SRI.

Buying plans, which are shown as a percentage based on answers to specific questions, have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 points.                                      

Contact Reinhardt at ereinhardt@cnybj.com

International headlines overwhelmed the domestic economic storylines in July, leaving upstate New York consumers more hesitant than they’ve been in 2014 to spend money on big-tickets items.

That’s the assessment of one analyst following the release of a monthly survey on confidence among New York consumers, including those in Upstate.

Consumer sentiment in upstate New York plummeted 8.2 points to 68.3 in July, according to the latest survey the Siena (College) Research Institute (SRI) released Aug. 6.

Upstate’s overall-sentiment index of 68.3 is a combination of the current sentiment and future-sentiment components. The region’s current-sentiment index of 77.3 decreased 6.4 points from June, while the future-sentiment level fell 9.3 at 62.5.

Upstate’s overall sentiment was 5.2 points below the statewide consumer-sentiment level of 73.5, which fell 5.3 points from June, SRI said.

New York state’s consumer-sentiment index was 8.3 points lower than the July figure of 81.8 for the entire nation, which slipped 0.7 points from June, as measured by the University of Michigan’s consumer-sentiment index.

The results for the July survey were “fairly dismal,” says Douglas Lonnstrom, professor of statistics and finance at Siena College and SRI founding director.

“I was actually quite surprised that they [the index figures] dropped so much,” says Lonnstrom.

At 73.5, New York’s consumer-sentiment level hadn’t registered that low since the 73.3 figure posted in November 2013, he added.

The economic news “wasn’t terrible” in July with the stock market climbing above the 17,000 mark, gas prices fell, and the economic forecasts weren’t “real bad,” says Lonnstrom.

“And yet every [sentiment] number is down [in the July survey],” he adds, noting index levels for the state’s regions and demographic groups, including gender, age range, income level, and political-party affiliation.

Lonnstrom contends the international headlines in Ukraine, including the downed Malaysian Airlines jet, and the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas “just kind of made consumers very uncertain and very worried.”

When compared with the previous three years, the state’s overall-confidence sentiment of 73.5 is down 1.9 points from July 2013 and July 2012, and has increased 10.5 points compared to July 2011, according to the SRI data. The sentiment index measured 64.3 in July 2009.

In July, buying plans were up 1.2 points to 13 percent for cars and trucks, increased 2.4 points to 22.1 percent for furniture, and rose 0.8 points to 5.1 percent for homes.

Buying plans fell 1 point to 33.1 percent for consumer electronics and slid 6.6 points to 14.3 percent for major home improvements.

Gas and food prices
In SRI’s monthly analysis of gas and food prices, 59 percent of upstate respondents said the price of gas was having a serious impact on their monthly budgets, which is down from 65 percent in June and 67 percent in May.

In addition, 51 percent of statewide respondents indicated concern about the price of gas, down from 54 percent in June and 58 percent in May, according to SRI.

“The gas price news was good [in July], and yet, the world news just overwhelmed it,” says Lonnstrom. 

When asked about food prices, 68 percent of upstate respondents indicated the price of groceries was having a serious impact on their finances, down from 73 percent in June.

At the same time, 67 percent of statewide respondents indicated concern about the price of food, down 1 percentage point from June, according to the SRI data.

Food prices aren’t nearly as “volatile” as gas prices, says Lonnstrom.

“Gas is one commodity, so if I went in last week and it cost me $40 to fill my tank and this week, it cost me $50, I feel that and sense that,” he says. 

In their trips to the grocery store, consumers are buying several items which may or may not have fluctuating prices. It takes “much longer” for an effect in the food-price chain to impact the numbers that much. 

SRI conducted its survey of consumer sentiment in July by random telephone calls to 629 New York residents over the age of 18. 

As consumer sentiment is expressed as an index number developed after statistical calculations to a series of questions, “margin of error” does not apply, according to SRI.

Buying plans, which are shown as a percentage based on answers to specific questions, have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 points.                                      

Contact Reinhardt at ereinhardt@cnybj.com