CenterState report reveals 2023 business expectations for region

SYRACUSE, N.Y. — Nearly three-quarters of area companies surveyed (73 percent) anticipate increased sales or revenue in 2023, down 2 percent from the 2022 projections.

At the same time, more than 72 percent of nearly 200 area companies surveyed expect an increase in jobs and hiring in 2023 — up 4 percent from 2022 projections.

That’s according to the 2023 Economic Forecast for Central New York report that CenterState CEO released on Jan. 25. Baldwinsville–based Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. (RMS) conducted the survey.

The report includes the perspectives and projections of CenterState CEO members and business leaders from across industry sectors, with data and insight on Micron Technology’s (NASDAQ: MU) economic impact, along with industry and employment trends.

Besides the hiring and revenue projections, the survey found 54 percent of firms expect to expand products and services in 2023, down about 2 percent from the 2022 projections. And 47 percent anticipate they will increase capital investments, also down 2 percent from last year’s projections.

The report also found nearly 70 percent of respondents describing their expectations for the strength of their business in 2023 as “strong or very strong,” similar to last year, when 72 percent described their business in the same manner. 

Additionally, more than 70 percent of respondents expect Micron Technology’s commitment to Central New York will impact their business.

The economic-development organization released the report during its annual Economic Forecast event held at the Nicholas J. Pirro Convention Center at Oncenter. 

The program attracted 750 attendees, CenterState CEO tells CNYBJ.

Regional outlook 

Luke Tilley, chief economist for Wilmington Trust Investment Advisors, Inc., was the event’s keynote speaker. He presented a national economic outlook with a focus on the impact of inflation on the 2023 Capital Markets Forecast.

“The trajectory of inflation in the U.S. is paramount for the economy, the Fed, markets, and by extension, for investors,” Tilley said in the CenterState CEO news release. “We think it will continue to slow in the near term but is unlikely to return to the incredibly low levels that prevailed between the global financial crisis and the COVID pandemic, thanks to labor markets, China’s trajectory, and the energy transition.”

In his remarks, Robert Simpson, president and CEO of CenterState CEO, “highlighted the positive outlook” shared by the business community in this year’s Economic Forecast survey, “even as the national economy sees challenges on the horizon,” per the organization’s release.

“As we consider our region’s outlook in the near term, there are real and important catalysts, particularly looming national economic trends, to hedge against. However, those pressures do not tamper my confidence for what lies ahead for this community,” Simpson said. “This year’s forecasters shared an optimistic outlook that reflects the significant progress we expect following the announcement of Micron Technology’s historic investment in Central New York. We are now on a new path where we must push the boundaries of our imagination to move that needle even further, and boldly ask the critical question, what will we achieve next?  While there are challenges in the short term, if we remain focused on our core strategies and committed to our long-term vision, we will meet this moment and accelerate our progress.”

Business pressures

Survey takers asked forecasters to identify pressures that dominated Central New York businesses in 2022, which could impact their growth in 2023. 

The top three responses included availability of skilled personnel/workforce development (58.9 percent); materials/supplies/equipment (34.2 percent); employee benefits and costs (32.3 percent), CenterState CEO said.

Other factors were also involved. Business leaders commented that their largest barrier to growth is “finding the right people.”

The factors also included supply-chain issues, from paper to computer chips, as well as the high cost of freight, which all “present a hindrance to growth.”

In addition, not all industries feel they are back to pre-COVID levels; some are still cutting back following COVID-19 or needing to develop new programs following changes brought on by the pandemic.

Other factors included access to working capital, fundraising, interest rates and inflation, local economic conditions, mergers and acquisitions, and skyrocketing housing costs, lack of housing for sale, CenterState CEO said.

“While the anticipated economic headwinds are ones we must heed, other economic indicators highlight that the Central New York economy is outperforming the nation and some of its Upstate peers on several measures,” Simpson said. “For example, the unemployment rate for the five county Central New York region was 2.8% as of November 2022, compared to 3.6% statewide, and 3.4% nationally. Central New York’s GDP is about 44.3 billion. According to Empire State Development, starting in 2025 Micron will increase the state’s GDP by $9.6 billion a year, with most of that going to Central New York. That is level of growth that will be unmatched. We have an imperative to plan for this new, accelerated growth trajectory with an inclusive growth mindset.”