AAA expects more than 55M to travel for Thanksgiving

Estimate is up over 2 percent from last year 

AAA projects 55.4 million travelers will travel 50 miles or more from home over the Thanksgiving holiday travel period.

That is up 2.3 percent over last year and marks the third-highest Thanksgiving traveler forecast since AAA began tracking holiday travel in 2000. The top two years were 2005 and 2019, respectively.

For the purposes of this forecast, the Thanksgiving holiday travel period is defined as the five-day segment from Wednesday, Nov. 22 through Sunday, Nov. 26, AAA said in a news release.

In 2022, AAA had predicted more than 54 million people were expected to travel 50 miles or more from home during the Thanksgiving holiday period, which was up 1.5 percent from 2021.

“For many Americans, Thanksgiving and travel go hand in hand, and this holiday, we expect more people on the roads, skies, and seas compared to 2022,” Paula Twidale, senior VP of AAA Travel, said in the release. “Travel demand has been strong all year, and AAA’s Thanksgiving forecast reflects that continued desire to get away and spend time with loved ones.”

Getting there

Most Thanksgiving travelers will drive to their destinations. AAA projects 49.1 million Americans will get behind the wheel, an increase of 1.7 percent from 2022. 

AAA expects 4.7 million people will fly over Thanksgiving, an increase of 6.6 percent compared to 2022 and the highest estimated number of Thanksgiving air travelers since 2005. Tuesday and Wednesday before Thanksgiving are the busiest air-travel days ahead of the holiday and the most expensive. Sunday is typically the busiest day to return home, AAA data shows Monday is also a popular day to fly back after Thanksgiving.

The number of people traveling by cruise, bus, and train over Thanksgiving is up nearly 11 percent over last year. AAA said it expects 1.55 million travelers will head out of town using these other modes of transportation, which “took a huge hit during the pandemic but have rebounded nicely.” 

“The cruise industry, in particular, has made a remarkable comeback,” Twidale noted. “Thanksgiving cruises are mostly sold out, with many travelers looking to spend the holiday at sea.”

Holiday travel forecast methodology 

In cooperation with AAA, S&P Global Market Intelligence (SPGMI) developed a methodology to forecast actual domestic-travel volumes. 

The economic variables used to forecast travel for the current holiday are leveraged from S&P Global Market Intelligence’s proprietary databases, AAA said. The data include macroeconomic drivers such as employment, output, household net worth, asset prices including stock indices, interest rates, housing market indicators, and variables related to travel and tourism including gasoline prices, airline travel, and hotel stays. 

AAA and S&P Global Market Intelligence have quantified holiday travel volumes going back to 2000. 

Historical travel-volume estimates come from DK SHIFFLET’s travel performance/MonitorSM. The performance/MonitorSM is a comprehensive study measuring the travel behavior of U.S. residents. 

DK SHIFFLET contacts more than 50,000 U.S. households each month to obtain detailed travel data, resulting in the unique ability to estimate visitor volume and spending, identify trends, and forecast U.S. travel behavior, all after the trips have been taken.

The travel forecast is reported in person-trips. In particular, AAA and SPGMI forecast the total U.S. holiday travel volume and expected mode of transportation. 

The travel forecast presented in this report was prepared the week of Oct. 9, AAA said.