More than 54 million people are expected to travel 50 miles or more from home during the Thanksgiving holiday period, up 1.5 percent from 2021 travel levels. The figure also represents 98 percent of pre-pandemic volumes. That’s according to the AAA’s Thanksgiving travel forecast, which also notes that this year is projected to be the […]
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The figure also represents 98 percent of pre-pandemic volumes. That’s according to the AAA’s Thanksgiving travel forecast, which also notes that this year is projected to be the third busiest for Thanksgiving travel since AAA stated tracking the data in 2000.
In that time period, the organization notes that 2005 and 2019, respectively, were the busiest years for Thanksgiving travel.
For purposes of this forecast, AAA says the Thanksgiving holiday-travel period is defined as the five-day period from Nov. 23 to Nov. 27. The Wednesday-to-Sunday period is “consistent with previous years.”
Much like a year ago, most travelers will drive to their destinations. It’s expected that nearly 49 million people will travel by car. Thanksgiving road trips have risen slightly — up 0.4 percent from 2021 — but car travel remains 2.5 percent below 2019 levels.
“Families and friends are eager to spend time together this Thanksgiving, one of the busiest for travel in the past two decades,” Paula Twidale, AAA’s senior VP of travel, said. “Plan ahead and pack your patience, whether you’re driving or flying.”
Air travel is up nearly 8 percent over 2021, with 4.5 million Americans flying to their Thanksgiving destinations this year. That’s an increase of more than 330,000 travelers and nearly 99 percent of the 2019 volume.
“Airport parking spaces fill up fast, so reserve a spot ahead of time and arrive early,” Twidale suggests. “Anticipate long TSA lines. If possible, avoid checking a bag to allow for more flexibility if flights are delayed or you need to reschedule.”
Americans are also using other modes of transportation for traveling.
More than 1.4 million people are going out of town for Thanksgiving by bus, train, or cruise ship, up 23 percent from 2021 and comprising 96 percent of the 2019 volume.
“With travel restrictions lifted and more people comfortable taking public transportation again, it’s no surprise buses, trains, and cruises are coming back in a big way,” Twidale adds. “Regardless of the mode of transportation you have chosen, expect crowds during your trip and at your destination. If your schedule is flexible, consider off-peak travel times during the holiday rush.”
Methodology
In cooperation with AAA, S&P Global Market Intelligence developed a “unique” methodology to forecast actual domestic travel volumes, per a AAA news release.
The economic variables used to forecast travel for the current holiday are leveraged from S&P Global Market Intelligence’s proprietary databases. These data include macroeconomic drivers such as employment; output; household net worth; asset prices, including stock indices; interest rates; housing-market indicators, and variables related to travel and tourism, including gasoline prices, airline travel, and hotel stays.
AAA and S&P Global Market Intelligence have quantified holiday-travel volumes going back to 2000.
The travel forecast is reported in person-trips. In particular, AAA and S&P Global Market Intelligence forecast the total U.S. holiday travel volume and expected mode of transportation.
The travel forecast presented in this report was prepared the week of Oct. 10.