AAA predicts lower national gas prices this fall

AAA forecasts that the national gas-price average will drop to $2.70 this fall “and has the potential to drop even more.”

That is 14-cents less a gallon compared to the price on Aug. 29 and more than a quarter lower than this year’s recorded high of $2.97 set in May, the organization said in a news release issued Wednesday.

“Cheaper-to-produce gasoline and relatively stable crude oil prices in August, combined with an anticipated drop in consumer gasoline demand post-Labor Day, means consumers will see savings when they fill-up at the pump this fall,” Jeanette Casselano, AAA spokesperson, said. “However, several outliers can reverse this forecast, including crude oil prices, geopolitical tensions and the mere threat of a hurricane.”

AAA notes that 2018 gas prices have been “significantly” more expensive than in 2017. The year-to-date-national gas-price average of $2.71 is 41-cents higher than the figure in 2017. In New York, 2018 gas prices year-to-date are 40 cents higher than in 2017, AAA said.

Price-drop factors

Part of the anticipated drop in fall pump prices is due to the switchover to winter-blend gasoline in mid-September, per the AAA news release.

The difference between summer- and winter-blend gasolines involves the reid vapor pressure (RVP) of the fuel. RVP is a measure of how easily the fuel evaporates at a given temperature. The more volatile a gasoline (higher RVP), the easier it evaporates.

Winter-blend fuel, which is cheaper to produce, has a higher RVP because the fuel must be able to evaporate at low temperatures for the engine to operate properly, especially when the engine is cold.

In addition, the arrival of fall historically means a drop in consumer-gasoline demand as summer road trips and vacations subside, AAA said.

Contact Reinhardt at ereinhardt@cnybj.com