After big jump in June, New York manufacturing index slides in July

After rising to a nearly three-year high in June, the Empire State Manufacturing survey general-business index fell 10 points in July to 9.8.

The survey results indicate that new orders and shipments grew “at a somewhat slower pace than in June,” the New York Fed said. 

The manufacturing index had risen 21 points in June to 19.8, its highest level since September 2014. 

A positive index reading indicates expansion or growth in manufacturing activity, while a negative number points to a decline in the sector.

The results of the July survey indicate that business activity “grew modestly” for New York manufacturers, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said in its report issued July 17.

The survey found 30 percent of respondents reported that conditions had improved over the month, while 20 percent of manufacturers said that conditions had worsened.

Survey details

The new-orders index edged down 5 points, but at 13.3, it still showed that orders increased “at a fairly solid clip.” 

The shipments index fell 12 points to 10.5, suggesting that shipments grew, “but at a slower pace than last month.” 

The unfilled-orders index dropped below 0. The delivery-time index was “little changed” at 4.7, pointing to somewhat longer deliver times, and the inventories index fell to 2.4.

The index for number of employees fell for a third consecutive month, though it remained positive at 3.9, a sign that employment was growing, but not as rapidly as in earlier months. 

The average-workweek index fell to 0, indicating that hours worked remained the same. 

The prices-paid index was “little changed” at 21.3, as was the prices-received index at 11.0, suggesting that the pace of price increases “held steady,” the New York Fed said.

Indexes assessing the six-month outlook remained “favorable,” though firms were “somewhat less optimistic” about future conditions than in June. 

The index for future business conditions fell 7 points to 34.9, and the index for future new orders fell 9 points to 33.4. 

Employment was expected to increase “modestly,” though the average workweek was expected to decline slightly. 

The capital-expenditures index slipped to 15.0, and the technology-spending index was at 11.8.

The New York Fed distributes the Empire State Manufacturing Survey on the first day of each month to the same pool of about 200 manufacturing executives in New York. On average, about 100 executives return responses.