Binghamton consumer confidence dips slightly in Q2

Binghamton consumers continued to resist opening their wallets in the second quarter of 2012, according to an index from the Siena (College) Research Institute (SRI) that showed a slight erosion of willingness to spend in the region.

Overall consumer confidence in the Binghamton metropolitan statistical area (MSA) dropped 0.1 points to 65.8. The area ranked eighth in confidence out of nine MSAs in New York State.

The Binghamton region also remained below the SRI index’s break-even point, which is just above 76. The break-even point is the reading at which consumers express an equal amount of optimism and pessimism. Index results above the point indicate mostly optimistic consumers, while results below it reflect prevalent pessimism.

The Syracuse and Utica MSAs joined Binghamton in losing consumer confidence last quarter. Overall confidence slipped 2.7 points in Syracuse to 68.6, and it tumbled 4.9 points in Utica to 63.4. Syracuse ranked seventh in the state in consumer confidence. Utica ranked ninth.

Only one other MSA in New York State lost overall confidence in the quarter. New York City’s consumer confidence fell 2.2 points to 79.3. However, the city still managed to maintain the top confidence level in the state.

The five remaining metropolitan areas were all home to increasing overall confidence. That leaves quarter-to-quarter results for the state as a whole looking like a mixed bag, according to Douglas Lonnstrom, professor of statistics and finance at Siena College and SRI founding director.

“It’s kind of like we’re moving laterally here,” he says. “And I don’t see anything in the infrastructure that’s going to cause us to dramatically go up or down. We just seem to be drifting along right here.”

Albany posted the state’s largest increase in overall consumer confidence, 3.4 points to 78.7. Meanwhile, confidence climbed by 1.4 points in both Buffalo and the Mid-Hudson region. It moved up to 72.2 in Buffalo and 70.2 in the Mid-Hudson MSA.

Overall confidence crept up 1.1 points in Rochester to 78.7. It increased 0.4 points in Long Island to 73.5.

While, Binghamton, Syracuse, and Utica lagged behind the rest of the state in quarter-to-quarter comparisons, all nine of New York’s MSAs have experienced confidence gains from a year ago, Lonnstrom says.

“Some of them are modest, and Syracuse is one of those — up about 7 percent from a year ago,” he says. “Some are up quite a bit. Binghamton is up 20 percent.”

In Utica, consumer confidence has increased by 8 percent since the second quarter of 2011, the SRI index shows.

SRI develops the quarterly confidence indexes by surveying consumers over the age of 18 in random telephone calls. Each MSA index is based on more than 400 respondents, with the exception of the indexes for New York City and Long Island. SRI calculates those quarterly indexes using averages of its monthly consumer-confidence surveys.

Current and future confidence

Binghamton consumers’ overall confidence may have gone down between the first and second quarters of 2012, but they actually expressed an increasing willingness to spend under current conditions. That willingness evaporated when it came to the future, however. The MSA’s current confidence jumped 1.9 points to 71.3. Future confidence ticked down 1.4 points to 62.3.

Syracuse’s current confidence skidded 5 points to 71.6. Its future confidence edged down 1.2 points to 66.7.

In Utica, current confidence fell 5.7 points to 68.2. Future confidence declined 4.4 points to 60.3.

Buying plans

SRI also surveyed consumers in the state’s nine metropolitan areas about their plans for making major purchases in five different categories. The institute asked if consumers plan to buy a car or truck, a computer, furniture, a home, or a major home improvement in the next six months.

The portion of consumers planning to make major purchases decreased in 30 of the 45 possible categories across the state. It increased in 14 categories and stayed the same in one.

Consumers in the Binghamton MSA cut back on plans to purchase cars and trucks, computers, homes, and major home improvements. They boosted plans to buy furniture.

SRI’s survey found that 7.3 percent of Binghamton–area consumers plan to buy a car or truck, down 4.2 points from the first quarter of 2012. The reading is also lower than the survey’s historical average of 11.2 percent.

Only 8.5 percent of the region’s consumers plan to buy a computer, a drop of 0.9 points from the previous quarter and below the historical average of 9.6 percent. 

Home-buying plans slipped 0.1 points to 2.7 percent of consumers planning to purchase a home in the next six months. That’s below the survey’s historical average of 3.3 percent. Planned home-improvement purchases also declined, falling 0.6 points to 18 percent. Again, that is below the survey’s historical average of 19.3 percent.

The news was better for furniture sellers. Buying plans for furniture increased 0.7 points to 14.1 percent. The measurement moved above the survey’s historical average, which shows 13.6 percent of consumers typically plan to purchase furniture in six months.