Binghamton consumer confidence slides in 3rd quarter

Consumer confidence in the Binghamton area trickled downward during the third quarter of 2012, yet consumers still expressed more willingness to spend when compared to the same period last year.

The Binghamton metropolitan statistical area’s (MSA) overall consumer-confidence index decreased by 0.2 points to 65.6 over the three months of July, August, and September, according to surveying from the Siena (College) Research Institute (SRI). It remained below an index break-even point of about 76.

That’s the point at which equal numbers of consumers express optimism and pessimism. Confidence results below 76 indicate mostly pessimistic consumers, while results above the mark represent reigning optimism.

Despite its prevailing pessimism in the third quarter, the Binghamton region displayed more overall confidence than it did in the same quarter a year ago. The region’s consumer-confidence mark of 65.6 is 29 percent higher than its 2011 third-quarter score of 50.8, according to SRI.

Confidence levels across the state would have been much lower this quarter if not for a September shift toward spending, says Douglas Lonnstrom, professor of statistics and finance at Siena College and SRI founding director.

“July and August were weak, and September turned it around,” he says. “This was a strange quarter in that the direction shifted dramatically. These numbers would have been a lot worse if September hadn’t been so good.”

However, Binghamton residents weren’t alone in experiencing dwindling overall confidence during the third quarter. SRI’s overall confidence indexes dipped in eight of nine MSAs during the quarter, including in Utica and Syracuse.

Utica’s consumer confidence eroded 1 point to 62.4 — although that’s 19 percent higher than its level of 52.5 last year. Syracuse’s sagged 0.6 points to 68, which is 8 percent higher than its index score of 63.1 a year ago.

Albany consumers lost the most confidence over this year’s third quarter, lowering their index by 5.1 points to 73.6. The Rochester region followed, with confidence levels there falling 4.8 points to 73.9.

Overall confidence moved down 3.3 points on Long Island to 70.2. It dropped 1.4 points in Buffalo to 70.8 and 0.6 points in the Mid-Hudson region to 69.6.

New York City posted the only confidence gain in the state during the quarter. Overall consumer confidence measured 82.4 in the city — up 3.1 points from the prior quarter.

However, each of the state’s nine MSAs recorded higher confidence levels than a year ago. The year-over-year increases all slotted in between Syracuse’s 8-percent jump and Binghamton’s 29-percent spike.

 

Current and future confidence

A more detailed look at Binghamton consumers showed a decline in current confidence and a rise in future confidence. The region’s current-confidence index dropped 3.8 points to 67.5, while its future confidence index increased 2.2 points to 64.5.

Syracuse had a similar split, but one that saw current confidence rise and future confidence fall. It posted a 3.1-point jump in current confidence to 74.7. Yet its future confidence sagged 3 points to 63.7.

Both current and future confidence ebbed in Utica. Current confidence dipped 1.1 points to 67.1. Future confidence descended 0.9 points to 59.4.

 

Buying plans

Measurements of consumers’ buying plans over the next six months were up and down. SRI asked consumers in each of the state’s nine MSAs if they plan to purchase a car or a truck, a computer, furniture, a home, or a major home improvement.

Buying plans were up in 24 of the 45 possible categories in the state, down in 20, and unchanged in 1. They generally fell for homes and major home improvements and rose for computers.

Several buying-plan measurements remained above their historical levels, though, according to Lonnstrom.

“If I had to make a prediction today, I think the holiday season could be a little bit stronger than it has been in the last few years,” he says. “We’ve got 16 out of the 45 buying-plan categories above their historical averages.”

In the Binghamton MSA, buying plans fell 3 points for furniture to 11.1 percent of consumers planning to make a purchase in that category. The reading is below the survey’s historical average of 13.6 percent.

The region’s buying plans also dipped for homes. They moved down 0.7 points to 1.9 percent. Historically, 3.3 percent of consumers in the Binghamton area plan home purchases.

Buying plans increased for cars and trucks, computers, and major home improvements in Binghamton. They revved up 1.4 points to 8.7 percent for cars and trucks, below the survey’s historical average of 11.2 percent. For computers, plans ticked up 2.6 points to 11.1 percent, which is above the survey’s historical average of 9.6 percent. And for major home improvements, they inched up 0.6 points to 18.6 percent. That’s above the historical average of 19.3 percent for that category.

SRI developed its quarterly confidence indexes after surveying consumers over the age of 18 using random telephone calls. Each MSA index is based on over 400 respondents, except for New York City’s and Long Island’s indexes. SRI calculates those quarterly indexes using averages of its monthly consumer-confidence surveys.                     

 

Contact Seltzer at rseltzer@tgbbj.com