Most do not expect full economic recovery in CNY until 2021 or later SYRACUSE — New York State is moving at “an appropriate pace” to lift NY PAUSE restrictions and reopen the economy, according to a majority (58 percent) of CNYBJ readers responding to an online survey. The Central New York Business Journal COVID-19 Business […]
Most do not expect full economic recovery in CNY until 2021 or later
SYRACUSE — New York State is moving at “an appropriate pace” to lift NY PAUSE restrictions and reopen the economy, according to a majority (58 percent) of CNYBJ readers responding to an online survey.
The Central New York Business Journal COVID-19 Business Recovery Survey was conducted May 12-17 through an online questionnaire emailed to subscribers of CNYBJ’s digital news publications. A total of 286 completed surveys were returned.
Slightly over one-third (34 percent) of respondents believed restrictions were being lifted too slowly, while 7 percent believed the pace has been too fast.
Gov. Andrew Cuomo announced the May 15 Phase One reopening of the Central New York, Mohawk Valley, Southern Tier, North Country, and Finger Lakes regions during the data-collection period for our survey.
Respondents were almost evenly split in their levels of concern over a second wave of the coronavirus hitting after restrictions are lifted, with 49 percent saying they were either “very” or “moderately” worried about a second wave, and 51 percent saying they were only “somewhat” or “not at all” worried.
The survey respondents expect that the road to economic recovery will be a long one.
• Only 19 percent expect Central New York’s economy to recover to pre-COVID-19 levels by the end of 2020. We found 42 percent believe such a recovery won’t happen until “Q3 of 2021 or later.”
• The outlook was somewhat more optimistic when respondents were asked about recovery of business conditions in their industry, with 37 percent expecting recovery to pre-COVID-19 levels by the end of 2020.
• Despite the cautious expectations for recovery, 65 percent said they were “very confident” their business or place of employment would be in business one year from now, and another 19 percent were “moderately” confident.
When asked about the impact on day-to-day operations of their businesses if regulations requiring continued social distancing and the wearing of masks in public were to remain in place after NY PAUSE has been lifted, 46 percent expected only “minimal” impact, 32 percent expected “moderate” impact, 21 percent expected “significant” impact, and less than one percent said such restrictions would make day-to-day operations “impossible.”
“The survey results show respondents are taking an optimistic view of their ability to survive the pandemic and a can-do attitude about being able to incorporate social-distancing and other safety guidelines into their operations while getting back to business,” says Adam Rombel, editor-in-chief of the Central New York Business Journal. “At the same time, business owners and managers are cognizant of the immense challenges that lie ahead for the Central New York economy, coming out of the dark of this crisis.”
Almost nine in 10 (88 percent) respondents said that they or someone in their organization had been working remotely from home during NY PAUSE, but most (57 percent) do not expect the percentage of people in their organizations working remotely, at least part of the time, will increase long-term after the COVID-19 crisis is over. Thirty percent expect the percentage will increase “slightly,” and 13 percent predict it will increase “significantly.”
Over half (57 percent) of respondents said their company received a loan through the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP), the emergency, potentially forgivable loan program designed to help small companies keep their employees during the coronavirus crisis. The survey found just 3 percent of respondents applied but had the loan application rejected or not yet approved. The other 40 percent did not apply or were unsure if they did.
Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s handling of the COVID-19 crisis was approved of by over two-thirds (68 percent) of respondents, echoing the positive approval the governor has registered in a number of statewide and national polls taken throughout the pandemic.
Respondents gave overwhelmingly positive approval ratings for handling of the crisis to their local-government officials (87 percent approval) and their employers (96 percent approval).
President Donald Trump’s handling of the crisis was approved of by 47 percent of respondents. Those approving of the president had sharply different opinions on several issues than those who disapproved of his performance. They were much more likely to say that New York State was moving too slowly on reopening the economy (58 percent of Trump approvers versus 13 percent of Trump disapprovers), less worried about a second wave of the virus hitting after re-opening (28 percent “very” or “moderately” worried among Trump approvers versus 68 percent among Trump disapprovers), and had a lower level of approval for Gov. Cuomo (44 percent approval among Trump approvers versus 90 percent among Trump disapprovers).
Respondent Profile
Most survey respondents owned or worked for small businesses, with 59 percent at an organization with fewer than 50 employees, and 73 percent at a company with fewer than 100 employees.
The survey respondents were widely distributed across the full range of industry sectors in the region. The industry categories most represented were professional services (22 percent); construction and real estate (14 percent); banking, finance, and insurance (9 percent); manufacturing (8 percent); and nonprofits (7 percent).
Based on job titles provided by the survey respondents, a majority held leadership positions in their organizations. Forty-three percent were at the owner/president/CEO/partner/executive director level, 6 percent were at the vice president/C-suite (excluding CEO) level, 7 percent were directors, and 14 percent identified themselves as managers.
Onondaga County was the most common (59 percent) primary-workplace location among respondents, followed by Oneida County (12 percent), Broome County (5 percent), and Oswego County (4 percent). Sixteen percent were spread throughout the remainder of the 16-county Central New York region, and 4 percent were outside Central New York (primarily in adjoining areas and Albany County).
A full report of the survey findings, including data tables for each question, will be made available to paid CNYBJ subscribers and survey respondents.