Cuomo Calls Federal Tax Law Economic Civil War but Fails to Show Facts

In his recent State of the State address, Gov. Cuomo called the recently passed federal tax reform bill “economic civil war” that will raise New Yorkers’ property taxes and income taxes. Unfortunately, no explanation for this statement was provided. Because of this type of overheated rhetoric coming from Cuomo and others, confusion continues to reign regarding what effect the new tax law will have on New York state. 

It’s no secret that New York is a high-tax state. The non-partisan Tax Foundation each year ranks every state in terms of its tax burden and New York is always either the highest, or close to the highest, in almost all categories of taxes. Sadly, our property taxes and income taxes are no exception. Prior to the enactment of the federal tax bill, individuals were able to deduct their property taxes and state income taxes on their federal tax return. Accordingly, the impact of our high property and income taxes were relatively muted at least for those who itemize their deductions on their federal tax returns.

Under the new federal law, the deduction for state and local property and income taxes is capped at $10,000. Most New Yorkers will not be affected by this change because they do not itemize their deductions but rather take a standard deduction. In fact, most will enjoy a tax cut because the new tax bill increases the standard deduction for a single filer to $12,000 and increases it for joint filers to $24,000. The law also increases the child tax credit.

If most New Yorkers will benefit from the federal tax plan, why is the governor sounding the alarm of economic Armageddon. It’s because he is worried about tax migration — that is, wealthy people leaving New York state and moving to other states with lower taxes. This is already occurring and could accelerate with the new tax law. The new federal tax law negatively affects wealthy New Yorkers because they tend to itemize their deductions and the new higher standard deduction is not enough to cover what they pay in state and local taxes. Moreover, New York’s income tax is progressive, meaning those who earn the most income pay the most in state income taxes. If New York loses these wealthy citizens to other states, it will have a bigger direct impact on the state revenues than if middle class or low-income citizens left the state.

There is irony to the fact that many of those speaking the loudest against the federal tax cuts are the same people who, in the past, advocated for higher taxes on the rich. At that time, they claimed that taxation of the wealthy did not play a role in where they lived. But now that the federal government is doing the taxing, their tune has changed.

Ultimately, it’s too soon to know exactly what effect the new tax law will have on New York and the state budget. There are indications that the economy will grow stronger as a result of the tax cuts. For example, Apple announced that because of the federal tax cuts it would be investing $350 billion in the U.S. over the next five years and hiring an anticipated 20,000 workers. Hopefully, more businesses will be following Apple’s lead. If the economy takes off, and the stock market continues to grow, that could be very positive for New York’s economy — offsetting any lost revenue as a result of tax migration. However, New York could also work on lowering its tax burden and if we did, the issue of tax migration would be mitigated.                                      

William (Will) A. Barclay is the Republican representative of the 120th New York Assembly District, which encompasses most of Oswego County, including the cities of Oswego and Fulton, as well as the town of Lysander in Onondaga County and town of Ellisburg in Jefferson County. Contact him at barclaw@assembly.state.ny.us, or (315) 598-5185.