Economic Forecast for CNY Optimistic for 2019

Vigilance needed for continued progress

The annual Economic Forecast Breakfast event [held on Jan. 9] was an opportunity to take a closer look at how a robust year of growth and investments in 2018 has set the stage for a strong 2019. 

Our regional GDP growth accelerated more than threefold in 2018, our best performance in six years. Unemployment is also at a record low, 3.8 percent, with 2,800 more people in the workforce getting a paycheck. Seventy-four percent of respondents to our Economic Forecast survey described their business in 2018 as being strong or very strong. Seventy-five percent say they anticipate overall sales and revenue growth in 2019, up from 67 percent the previous year. Forty-nine percent expect to make capital investments, up 5 percent from last year. 

We also heard from our forecasters that 55 percent are expecting an increase in hiring in 2019, while at the same time the ability to find and retain talent reached the top of the list of business concerns. The survey found 49 percent say talent attraction and retention will impact their business this year, up from just 26 percent last year. 

In his analytic assessment of national and regional economic trends, keynote speaker Gary Keith, M&T Bank’s regional economist, stated that growth should remain positive in the coming year, but warned that competition for talent will continue to intensify. [He said] collaborative approaches are essential if we are to address labor-supply shortages and workforce-skill gaps and continue the region’s economic progress. 

Our challenge now is to maximize this opportunity while bringing more people in our community into the workforce to be part of this progress. To do so will require a multi-dimensional approach to attracting and retaining talent, and innovative solutions to expanding our existing labor pool. Whether it is engaging with educational providers to tailor programs to the needs of industry; carefully reviewing hiring practices to see that productive, capable workers aren’t unintentionally excluded from potential applicant pools; or partnering with the Talent Task Force to pilot new and creative strategies to help us attract more talent, we must collectively embrace a civic-leadership role to help ensure continued growth in the year ahead. 

There are also smaller steps we can take to help transform the narrative about this region. When you have or hear of job postings, share them using #CNYJobs. Likewise, when you are enjoying our vibrant quality of life, share those messages too with #CNYLife. Imagine the impact we could have if we all committed to be an active and vocal ambassador for this region throughout the year. 

The untold story of 2019 is how each and every one of us reacts to the opportunities before us, how we collaborate on the things that matter. With your continued leadership and support, 2019 will be another year of progress for the Central New York economy.       

Robert M. (Rob) Simpson is president and CEO of CenterState CEO, the primary economic-development organization for Central New York. This viewpoint is drawn and edited from the “CEO Focus” email newsletter that the organization sent to members on Jan. 10.