Economist: CNY economy improved in 2015 but has room to grow

SYRACUSE, N.Y. — The CenterState New York regional economy “continued to evolve and slowly expand” in 2015, but activity “remained behind the U.S. norm.”

That’s according to Gary Keith, regional economist with M&T Bank, who provided the keynote address at CenterState CEO’s 2016 Economic Forecast breakfast.

The organization held the event on Wednesday at the Nicholas J. Pirro Convention Center at Oncenter.

 “Policies focused on attracting and deriving a larger portion of output from high-potential industries like education and health care, advanced manufacturing, business services and tourism can lead to stronger employment and personal-income growth. Reshaping our economic base to become more like the rest of the country in this respect, aided by funding from the recent Upstate Revitalization Initiative competition, will help accelerate this process,” Keith said in his event remarks, according to a CenterState CEO news release.

CenterState also used the event to release its 2016 Economic Forecast Report.

The report includes the perspectives and projections of nearly 200 CenterState CEO members and business leaders from 14 industry sectors. It also includes “key” market data from Manpower Inc. on industry, occupation, employment, and earning expectations through 2019.

The report found about 44 percent of the surveyed CenterState CEO members expect an increase in jobs and hiring during 2016, down 7 percent from 2015 projections.

In addition, nearly two-thirds (63 percent) anticipate increased sales or revenue in 2016, which is down 8 percent from 2015 projections.

Another 58 percent expect to expand product and services in 2016, down 1 percent from 2015 projections.

The report also lists just over 100 area business leaders who it references as “forecasters.”

Baldwinsville–based Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. conducted the survey and handled the focus groups involved, CenterState CEO said.

Opportunities, challenges
The Economic Forecast Report also identified several “opportunities and challenges” that forecasters say impact their projections for their businesses and the regional economy.

The opportunities include advances in technology that have the “potential” to create “competitive advantages and new efficiencies;” collaboration and realignment that will “enable” competitiveness and growth; and new tourism attractions that can draw people to the regional economy, according to CenterState CEO.

The challenges include attracting and retaining skilled talent; managing the “increasing costs” of benefits; and navigating an “increasingly complex” local, state and national regulatory environment, according to the news release.

Simpson comments
In his event remarks, Robert Simpson, president and CEO of CenterState CEO, echoed forecasters’ “confidence” that Central New York’s $500 million award in Gov. Cuomo’s Upstate business competition provides an “unprecedented opportunity to dramatically accelerate the trajectory of the region’s economy.”

“The predictions and sentiments shared by our forecasters tell the tale of how our economy has performed for too long … slow and steady. The truth is, we have not seen any major growth curves for several decades,” Simpson said, according to the release. “But I believe there is reason for new hope given the monumental investment in Central New York by the governor’s Upstate Revitalization Initiative. When our region came together to develop a bold and ambitious plan, we demonstrated our will to no longer accept the status quo for our economy. We have a clear vision of a future where we are more than who we are today; we are daring to be better,” said Simpson.

Contact Reinhardt at ereinhardt@cnybj.com