Empire Center fellow says NYS faces $9B budget gap next year

That’s according to the FY24 Enacted Budget Financial Plan, issued by the state Division of the Budget (DOB). The gaps grow to more than $13 billion in fiscal 2026 and 2027, according to Empire Center for Public Policy, Inc. fellow Ken Girardin.

Girardin writes that Hochul’s FY24 budget proposal had expected “smaller, more manageable gaps, beginning with $5.1 billion in fiscal 2025 and totaling $21 billion over the three years. The gap has widened for two reasons: the just-adopted state budget hiked spending $2 billion per year above what Hochul originally proposed, and DOB has since revised forecast tax receipts down significantly — including a $3 billion downgrade for the current fiscal year.”

He notes that the latter change came after the state’s April tax collections came in $4 billion below the number forecast in January.

“New York state government isn’t in immediate danger of running out of money thanks to moves by Governors Andrew Cuomo and Hochul to build up reserves, with about $19 billion available. Tapping this nest egg outside a major emergency or economic downturn, however, would leave the state poorly positioned when such an event inevitably occurs —and it wouldn’t be enough to cover even two years of spending,” Girardin writes.

He concludes that the revised budget-gap calculation “is the clearest evidence to date that Albany’s three-year spending binge ... can’t be sustained.”

As a fellow at the Empire Center, Girardin’s work focuses on organized labor’s effect and influence on state and local government policy. He worked with E.J. McMahon to produce the first independent analysis of New York’s property tax cap, which demonstrated the cap’s effectiveness and boosted efforts to extend the cap and ultimately make it permanent, the Empire Center contends.

You can read Girardin’s full blog analysis on the state-budget gap at: https://www.empirecenter.org/publications/the-bill-arrives-ny- faces-9b-budget-gap-next-year/