How Trump got this far and why the pundits never saw it coming

A big question about Donald Trump is how did they get it so wrong? That is the pundits, the party elite, consultants, editorial writers, and the other candidates. How come they were so totally wrong about the rise of Trump?

The answer is Joe the Plumber.

He’s the guy who dared to question Barrack Obama during a campaign stop in 2008. Joe questioned Obama’s tax-policy proposals. He told the candidate he wanted to start a plumbing business. John McCain quickly made Joe the Plumber part of his campaign.

He did so because neither he nor any of the GOP establishment people behind his campaign knew a plumber. (To be sure, his running mate Sarah Palin did.) And, the establishment folks don’t know any plumbers today. They don’t know electricians, bartenders, and brick layers. They don’t know barbers and cops. They don’t know Army privates and machine operators. They don’t know truckers and waitresses. 

Candidates want votes from these folks. So in every campaign, they assault us with fakery. The candidates bowl a strike at a bowling alley. Or raise a mug of suds with miners. Or drive a tank or tractor. Or eat a hot dog with county fair-goers.

But once the cameras quit, they don’t know these folks. They don’t sit in saloons with them. They don’t party with them at the Elks Club. They are not off to the church chicken supper tonight. This goes for the candidates as much as for the pundits, consultants, and commentators.

Because they don’t really know such folks, they did such a lousy job predicting how they will vote. Because they don’t really listen to such folks, they don’t know how angry many of them are about how this country is being run.

These are important voters, because many are on the blue-collar side of the Democratic Party. They’re not crazy about the intellectual side of that party. The academics and social workers don’t do much for them. A lot of these voters jumped ship and voted for Ronald Reagan for president twice. A lot of them are voting for Trump today.

Now, Trump’s support is broader than that. But if the pundit class had been slurping suds with plumbers over the years, they would have heard alarm bells. Bells so loud they would have known the noise would resonate well beyond the plumbers.

But they don’t hang out with the low brows; they don’t hear them. The establishment figures sip Sancerre with their fellows, and hear only what their fellows think. Instead of what the Great Unwashed think. Most of them haven’t gripped a calloused hand in years. 

If Trump wins this battle, someone may declare it was won in the truck stops, greasy spoons, factory floors, saloons, and county fairs of this country. The very places the media and political elite meet and greet during campaigns. The very places they avoid between elections.

Now, I am not recommending these cats change their social habits. But in an election like this, they should hang up their predicting boots, because they’ve got no mud on those boots. And most of their predictions thus far have fizzled.

A few elections ago, a network media gal in the Big Apple made a big announcement. She wailed that she could not understand how Reagan got elected, because nobody she knew voted for him.

A few weeks ago, I saw a similar comment from a female movie star about The Donald. She does not know a single person who plans to vote for him.

Maybe she should attend one of her movies, and chat up the guy or gal who vacuums the popcorn between shows.

From Tom ... as in Morgan.                     

Tom Morgan writes about political, financial, and other subjects from his home near Oneonta. Several upstate radio stations carry his daily commentary, Tom Morgan’s Money Talk. Contact him at tomasinmorgan@yahoo.com