M&T mid-market survey finds both pessimism and optimism

Many mid-market company leaders continue to feel positive about the prospects for their own businesses, despite ongoing pessimism on the national economy, according to a new survey from M&T Bank.

One in five of middle-market respondents in the survey said they expect U.S. economic growth to speed up in the next six months, down from more than half in February. And, just 18 percent of those respondents believe the economy has improved in the past six months, down from 46 percent in the previous survey.

More than 28 percent say the economy has weakened, up from 6 percent.

The Buffalo–based bank polled senior managers and owners of privately held businesses, with sales ranging from $5 million to $500 million, throughout its geographic footprint for its third-quarter economic outlook survey. The bank received more than 500 responses.

Businesses in a number of surveys have consistently offered pessimism on big-picture economic matters that are beyond their control, says Gary Keith, M&T’s regional economist for upstate New York. But many of those same companies feel modestly optimistic about their future prospects.

Hiring plans among respondents to M&T’s latest survey remained positive, with 27 percent expecting to add employees in the next six months, down slightly from 32 percent in the previous survey. Just 6 percent expect job cuts, up from 5 percent.

In addition, 40 percent expect capital expenditures to rise in the coming months and just 11 percent expect reductions. Both those numbers were nearly the same as in the previous survey, according to M&T.

“Mid-size companies and commercial real- estate firms are finding ways to navigate and do things to move their businesses forward,” Keith says.

Overall, the economic recovery seems to be plodding along, Keith adds. It will probably continue at a slow, but steady pace.

Upstate New York did not experience many of the same strong headwinds that some other parts of the country did leading up to and during the recession, Keith notes. That means the region is better positioned for recovery.

All businesses will likely be carefully watching the election and the U.S. budget situation. A number of automatic budget cuts and tax increases set to take place early next year would certainly send the economy tumbling, Keith says.

“The economy isn’t strong enough to withstand these ‘fiscal cliff’ issues if they all come to bear,” he says. “I think there will be some recognition of that after the election.

“I think most of us rational folks think we’re going to get an 11th hour deal.”

Regardless of what happens in the policy arena, consumers must start spending again before the economy can recover fully, Keith says. He notes that about 70 percent of the U.S. economy is driven by consumers’ spending decisions.

“Until consumers start consuming at a higher rate, this is what you get,” he says.

Buffalo–based M&T is the leading bank in the Syracuse–area deposit market with 30 branch offices, more than $2.2 billion in deposits, and a market share of more than 21.2 percent. It is number two in the Utica–Rome market with 13 branches, more than 

$615 million in deposits, and a market share of about 16.8 percent.

M&T also leads the Binghamton–area market with a deposit market share of 48.7 percent, 16 branches, and more than $1.2 billion in deposits, according to the latest statistics from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.

The bank has $80.8 billion in total assets and more than 780 branches in New York, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Virginia, West Virginia, Delaware, and Washington, D.C.

Contact Tampone at ktampone@cnybj.com