New York Fed survey: consumers expect larger increase in wages

American consumers have boosted their expectations for earnings this year, according to new survey results the Federal Reserve Bank of New York released today.

The New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations’ results for January show that earnings-growth expectations over the next 12 months rose from 1.8 percent in December to 2.4 percent last month, with income and spending growth expectations also increasing slightly. Meanwhile, consumer expectations for inflation fell slightly, the results show.

The survey provides insight into Americans’ views on inflation, prices, the labor market, and household finance, the New York Fed says.

Other results from the January survey findings include:

Inflation

·         Consumer inflation expectations fell slightly in January to 3 percent for both one year ahead and three years into the future.

·         Consumer expectations for most commodity price changes stayed stable in January, with health-care cost expectations reversing the increase observed in the last two months, according to the New York Fed.

Labor market

·         Earnings-growth expectations rose from 1.8 percent (annual rate) in December to 2.4 percent in January. One fourth of respondents now expect earnings growth of at least 4.4 percent over the next year, the survey found.

·         Respondents’ average expected probability of leaving their current job (both voluntarily and involuntarily) remained essentially unchanged in January, the New York Fed said.

·         Survey respondents have become more confident about finding another job, with 49 percent expecting to find a job in three months if they were to lose one today, up from 46 percent in December.

Household finance 

·         Household income and spending-growth expectations increased slightly by 0.2 percentage points from December to 2.2 percent and 4.8 percent, respectively, the survey found

·         Perceptions of current credit access relative to one year ago and future credit access relative to today remained flat in January, with a slight decline in the share of consumers expecting easier financing conditions.

Each month, the Survey of Consumer Expectations interviews about 1,200 people who are part of a rolling panel, on which each respondent participates in the survey for up to one year, according to the New York Fed.

Contact Rombel at arombel@cnybj.com