New York manufacturing activity bounces back in September

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey general business-conditions index rebounded into positive territory by rising 21 points in September to 1.9.

The index had plummeted 20 points in August to -19 after declining six points in July to 1.1. The general business-conditions index is the monthly gauge on New York’s manufacturing sector. 

The September reading — based on firms responding to the survey — indicates business activity “was little changed” in New York state, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said in its Sept. 15 report. But it was a substantial improvement over the prior month where business conditions for manufacturers were deteriorating

A positive reading on the Empire State index indicates expansion or growth in manufacturing activity, while a negative number shows a decline in the sector. 

The September survey report found 27 percent of respondents reported that conditions had improved over the month, while 25 percent said that conditions had worsened, the New York Fed said.

It also found that new orders and shipments increased.

Survey details

The new-orders index shot up 25 points to 5.1, and the shipments index also jumped 25 points to 12.4, pointing to an increase in orders and shipments. 

The unfilled-orders index remained below zero at -5.2, “a sign that unfilled orders continued to decline,” the New York Fed said. Similarly, the inventories index came in at -6.2, indicating that inventories “contracted again.” 

The delivery-times index ticked up to 2.1, suggesting little change in delivery times.

The index for number of employees came in at -2.7, indicating a slight decline in employment levels, and the average workweek index edged up to -5.0, indicating another monthly decline in hours worked. 

The prices-paid index held steady at 25.8, pointing to little change in the pace of input price increases, while the prices-received index rose 7 points to 19.6, “signaling a modest pickup” in the pace of selling-price increases.

The index for future business conditions rose 6 points to 26.3, its highest level in more than a year, suggesting that firms have become more optimistic about future conditions. 

New orders and shipments are expected to increase significantly in the months ahead, and employment is expected to grow. The capital-spending index edged down to 10.3, suggesting that capital-spending plans “remained somewhat weak.” 

The New York Fed distributes the Empire State Manufacturing Survey on the first day of each month to the same pool of about 200 manufacturing executives in New York state. On average, about 100 executives return responses.