But MACNY leader says it “doesn’t necessarily reflect” what members say The Empire State Manufacturing Survey general business-conditions index plummeted 13 points to -19.4 in January, declining for a sixth consecutive month. But at least one observer of the regional manufacturing sector finds the measurement a bit surprising. The survey reading “doesn’t necessarily reflect” what […]
But MACNY leader says it “doesn’t necessarily reflect” what members say
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey general business-conditions index plummeted 13 points to -19.4 in January, declining for a sixth consecutive month.
But at least one observer of the regional manufacturing sector finds the measurement a bit surprising.
The survey reading “doesn’t necessarily reflect” what the Manufacturers Association of Central New York (MACNY) is hearing from its members, says Randall Wolken, president of MACNY.
“They haven’t expressed a lot of change from prior conversations in terms of what they’re experiencing, what they expect for 2016 in terms of their markets and their customers. So, I haven’t seen a significant shift in either direction. It’s a little hard for me to reconcile what I’m seeing,” says Wolken.He spoke with CNYBJ on Jan. 20.
The January survey found business activity for New York manufacturers fell “at the fastest pace since the Great Recession,” or early 2009, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said in a report issued Jan. 15.
A reading below zero represents a decline in manufacturing activity while a positive number shows expansion.
Inside the report
The new-orders index plunged 17 points to -23.5, indicating a “substantial” decline in orders.
After rising above zero last month, the shipments index retreated 19 points to -14.4, indicating a “sizable” drop in shipments.
The unfilled-orders index advanced 5 points to -11.0, and the delivery-time index fell 5 points to -13.0, signaling “shorter” delivery times.
The inventories index, up 6 points to -6.0, suggested that the reduction in inventory levels was continuing, although at a “slower pace than last month.”
The indexes for both prices paid and prices received were positive, the first such occurrence since August 2015.
The prices-paid index climbed 12 points to 16.0, representing the “fastest rise” in input prices since early last year.
After declining for the prior four months, selling prices increased slightly, with the prices received index rising 8 points to 4.0.
Labor-market conditions continued to “deteriorate.”
The index for number of employees was negative for a fifth consecutive month, though it edged up 3 points to -13.0.
After posting a “steep” decline last month, the average-workweek index moved up, but it remained negative at -6.0.
Indexes for the six-month outlook fell sharply this month, suggesting that optimism about future business conditions “weakened considerably.”
The index for future business conditions plunged 26 points to 9.5, its lowest level since 2009.
The indexes for future new orders and future shipments also fell sharply.
Only small improvements in labor market conditions were expected in the months ahead, with the index for expected number of employees falling to 4.0.
The capital expenditures index held steady at 15.0, and the technology-spending index was unchanged at 9.0.
The New York Fed distributes the Empire State Manufacturing Surveyon the first day of each month to the same pool of about 200 manufacturing executives in New York. On average, about 100 executives return responses.