New York manufacturing index turns positive after seven months in decline

Numbers indicating increases in orders and shipments helped generate a positive reading on a key monthly gauge of the New York manufacturing sector for the first time since last summer. The Empire State Manufacturing Survey general business-conditions index rose 17 points to 0.6 in March, its first positive reading since July of last year. That […]

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Numbers indicating increases in orders and shipments helped generate a positive reading on a key monthly gauge of the New York manufacturing sector for the first time since last summer.

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey general business-conditions index rose 17 points to 0.6 in March, its first positive reading since July of last year.

That beat economists’ average estimate of a reading of -10.5, according to Bloomberg. And, a MarketWatch.com poll of economists had forecast a -10 index number.

The results of the Empire State survey indicate that business activity “steadied” for New York manufacturers in March, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said in its news release issued March 15.

A positive reading on the index indicates expansion or growth in the sector, while a negative reading points to a decline in manufacturing activity.

The survey found 25 percent of respondents reported that conditions had improved over the month, while roughly the same percentage said that conditions had worsened. 

Inside the survey
The new-orders index posted a “steep gain” of 21 points, rising to 9.6, a positive reading that marked the first time orders had increased in several months, according to the New York Fed. 

The shipments index “shot up” 25 points to 13.9, signaling an increase in shipments, and the unfilled-orders index edged up three points to -4.0. 

The delivery-time index inched down to -4.0. The inventories index fell to -6.9, suggesting a decline in inventory levels.

The prices-paid index held steady at 3.0, indicating a “slight increase” in input prices. At -6.0, the prices-received index pointed to a small decline in selling prices. 

The index for number of employees edged down to -2.0, indicating that employment levels remained “fairly steady,” and the average-workweek index rose to 2.0, a sign that the average workweek was also “little changed.”

Indexes for the six-month outlook indicated that conditions are expected to improve in the months ahead. 

The index for future business conditions climbed 11 points to 25.5. 

The index for future new orders advanced 17 points to 38.9, its highest level in more than a year, and the index for future shipments rose 10 points to 33.3. 

The capital-expenditures index moved up 3 points to 15.8, and the technology-spending index rose to 9.9.

The New York Fed distributes the Empire State Manufacturing Surveyon the first day of each month to the same pool of about 200 manufacturing executives in New York. On average, about 100 executives return responses. 

Eric Reinhardt: