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OPINION: Inflation is still high as Fed weighs interest-rate cuts
Consumer inflation ticked up 0.4 percent in February to an annual rate of 3.2 percent amid a jump in oil, gasoline, natural gas, transportation, and shelter, according to the latest data by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Gasoline was up 3.8 percent. Fuel oil rose 1.1 percent. Natural gas was up 2.3 percent. Used cars […]
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Consumer inflation ticked up 0.4 percent in February to an annual rate of 3.2 percent amid a jump in oil, gasoline, natural gas, transportation, and shelter, according to the latest data by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Gasoline was up 3.8 percent. Fuel oil rose 1.1 percent. Natural gas was up 2.3 percent. Used cars and trucks ticked up 0.5 percent. Apparel was up 0.6 percent. Shelter edged up 0.4 percent. And transportation services increased 1.4 percent.
Although the rate of inflation has indeed slowed down from its 9.1 percent annual peak in June 2022 to its current rate of 3.2 percent, since January 2021 when President Joe Biden took office, overall consumer prices are up almost 18.5 percent.
For comparison, from January 2017 through February 2020, prior to COVID, at that point consumer prices had increased 6.4 percent.
Meaning, what has already been experienced — and is still being felt — is triple what the American people were accustomed to prior to COVID and its resulting $7 trillion printing, borrowing, and spending binge by the Federal Reserve and Congress.
In the meantime, the Fed has been holding rates firm at 5.25 percent to 5.5 percent. But in its economic projections released in December 2023, the central bank appears to be anticipating rate cuts to begin sometime this year — which is usually what happens when the economic cycle is ending and unemployment begins to rise — projecting the Federal Funds Rate to drop to 4.6 percent in 2024.
But that might change with the latest reading from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. On March 6, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell told Congress that the central bank wants to be certain inflation is headed back to its “normal” 2 percent a year bearing. He said, “In considering any adjustments to the target range for the policy rate, we will carefully assess the incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks… The Committee does not expect that it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent.”
This could indicate the Fed wants to get inflation down as far as possible before making any moves, and although the unemployment rate is off its historic low of 3.4 percent in April 2023 to its current rate of 3.9 percent in February, the Board of Governors is not panicking. As unemployment moves up, that is usually when the Fed will begin cutting rates as the cycle ends.
The fear could be that once the economic slowdown or recession is realized, unemployment will temporarily jump up, the Fed will cut rates and then robust inflation could be restored very quickly. For years, Biden has rejected there being any necessary tradeoffs between inflation and unemployment, but as the Fed keeps rates higher than the rate of consumer inflation and 898,000 jobs have been lost out of the household survey since November 2023 that hypothesis will soon be tested.
Robert Romano is the VP of public policy at Americans for Limited Government Foundation, the research arm of Americans for Limited Government, a libertarian political advocacy group. The organization conducts policy research and publishes reports with the goal of reducing the size of the government.
OPINION: Immigrants drive U.S. economy
The American economy is thriving, and immigration should get some of the credit. That’s the message from experts who highlight the critical role that immigrants are playing in the workforce. This may seem surprising when immigration is under attack and chaos at the border is a staple of political rhetoric. But immigrants are filling essential
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The American economy is thriving, and immigration should get some of the credit. That’s the message from experts who highlight the critical role that immigrants are playing in the workforce.
This may seem surprising when immigration is under attack and chaos at the border is a staple of political rhetoric. But immigrants are filling essential jobs — in childcare, health care, food service, and agriculture, as well as in science, technology, and entrepreneurship — at a time when employers are struggling to find workers.
About half the recent growth in the labor market came from foreign-born workers, according to an Economic Policy Institute analysis. A recent report by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimates that growth in the labor force, largely from immigration, will add $7 trillion to America’s GDP in the next decade. More people working means more people paying taxes, which reduces the federal deficit.
Of course, this doesn’t mean our immigration policies are working the way they should. They haven’t been seriously updated since 1986. We need an immigration system that advances our national interest and reflects our values, and we don’t have that. Our current system prioritizes family unification, which is important; but it hasn’t kept pace with changes in technology and the economy.
Obviously, many Americans are concerned about immigration. A recent Gallup survey found 28 percent of respondents named immigration as the top problem facing our nation, more than cited inflation or any other issue. And it’s not just Republicans who worry. Liberal cities like New York, Chicago, and Denver have been overwhelmed by migrants bused from Texas.
But some fears are overblown. Research finds that immigrants don’t take jobs from native-born Americans or drive down wages, at least in times of robust employment. Neither do they rely excessively on public assistance or commit more crimes. The vast majority play by the rules and contribute to society. The Pew Research Center estimates that just 22 percent of foreign-born workers are undocumented [in the country illegally].
America is a nation of immigrants, but immigration has often been controversial. An anti-immigrant backlash 100 years ago produced legislation to bar most migrants not from Northern and Western Europe. It wasn’t until the 1960s that a point-based system replaced national-origin quotas.
Today, immigrants account for 13.6 percent of the U.S. population, a modern-day high and about the same percentage as a century ago. The share of foreign-born workers in the labor force is higher, largely because immigrants are likely to be of working age. That’s important because the native-born population of working age isn’t growing. The Baby Boom generation has reached retirement, straining programs like Medicare and Social Security. As Brookings Institution analyst William H. Frey writes, “immigration levels are crucial in leading to national growth as opposed to decline, and countering what would otherwise be extreme aging.”
A well-designed immigration system could maximize the benefits of immigration while reducing border issues and other concerns. Unfortunately, getting agreement on immigration is extremely difficult. We saw this recently when the Senate reached a bipartisan deal to pair border restrictions and funding with aid to Ukraine and Israel, only to see the House reject the plan.
Almost 20 years ago, former Sen. Spencer Abraham (R–MI) and I chaired a task force to study America’s immigration policies. We recommended a simplified and streamlined system with consistent federal oversight, updated technology, improved border security, protection of human rights, and a path to legal status for unauthorized immigrants [those who entered the U.S. illegally]. These ideas shouldn’t be controversial, and they are as worthwhile today as when they were written.
It may be too much to expect Congress to pass immigration reform in an election year, when politicians are eager to exploit the issue. But we can’t keep kicking solutions down the road. Immigration is too important to the economy and to our identity as a nation. ν
Lee Hamilton, 92, is a senior advisor for the Indiana University (IU) Center on Representative Government, distinguished scholar at the IU Hamilton Lugar School of Global and International Studies, and professor of practice at the IU O’Neill School of Public and Environmental Affairs. Hamilton, a Democrat, was a member of the U.S. House of Representatives for 34 years (1965-1999), representing a district in south-central Indiana.
2024 Nonprofit Awards Event Photos
Photos from the 2024 Nonprofit Awards, held on March 19, 2024.
Herkimer County IDA plans March 26 brownfields meeting
HERKIMER, N.Y. — The Herkimer County Industrial Development Agency (IDA), along with environmental consultant HRP Associations, Inc., will share information on opportunities available for brownfield
Navy awards $1.3 million contract to ANDRO
ROME, N.Y. — The U.S. Navy has awarded ANDRO Computational Solutions, LLC a Phase II Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) contract with a base value of $1.3 million, plus additional funded options, to develop a new type of autonomous radio-frequency signal-intelligence (RF-SIGINT) capability for uncrewed air-system (UAS) platforms or aerial drones called RANGER — Robust
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ROME, N.Y. — The U.S. Navy has awarded ANDRO Computational Solutions, LLC a Phase II Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) contract with a base value of $1.3 million, plus additional funded options, to develop a new type of autonomous radio–frequency signal–intelligence (RF-SIGINT) capability for uncrewed air-system (UAS) platforms or aerial drones called RANGER — Robust Autonomy for NeGation of Enemy Radar.
ANDRO researchers will perform the work in the company’s Marconi-Rosenblatt Artificial Intelligence Innovation Lab, led by Jithin Jagannath, lab director and chief scientist for the technology sector, the Rome–based company announced.
The award builds on an earlier Navy investment of almost $1.5 million for ANDRO’s D-MARVEL system, a complement to RANGER, for a total funding amount approaching $3 million. RANGER and D-MARVEL both provide for next-generation machine learning-based UAS platforms that can autonomously perform a variety of tasks and conduct missions in diverse environments with little to no human intervention.
The ANDRO AI Lab team will apply novel machine-learning (ML) techniques for enhancing radar detection and classification and will integrate the low cost, small-form-factor payload with small UAS host platforms. The goal, according to Jagannath, is to bolster Manned-UnManned Teaming (MUM-T) to provide battlefield agility and improve platform survivability.
“The RANGER technology sits at the intersection of ANDRO’s Marconi-Rosenblatt Lab expertise in UAS autonomy and efficient machine learning-enabled signal intelligence,” Jagannath said in a release. “The AI lab team sees RANGER as the next-generation autonomous MUM-T planning and coordination system that will be engineered for operation in dynamic and austere application environments.”
ANDRO engineers Sean Furman and Tyler Gwin, with guidance from AI Lab Associate Director Anu Jagannath, will spearhead the design, integration, and flight testing of RANGER on UAS hardware.
Andrew Drozd, ANDRO president, anticipates growth in business stemming from the work to incorporate the solution into advanced UAS platforms during the next phases of advanced research and development.
“RANGER is at the core of ANDRO’s strategic plan to continue to expand the company’s research portfolio and footprint, including the research activities of the Marconi-Rosenblatt AI Innovation Lab,” he said.
Founded in 1994, ANDRO focuses on scientific research, development, and application of advanced computer software in the domains of radio frequency spectrum exploitation, secure wireless communications, cognitive radios, advanced radar data fusion, and sensor resource management.
Attention drivers: New York’s expanded Move Over Law takes effect March 27
ALBANY, N.Y. — Gov. Kathy Hochul on Tuesday reminded drivers that New York’s Move Over Law will soon expand to include all vehicles stopped along the roadway. Starting March 27, the law will require drivers to take precautions — including slowing down and moving over — to avoid a crash with all vehicles stopped along
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ALBANY, N.Y. — Gov. Kathy Hochul on Tuesday reminded drivers that New York’s Move Over Law will soon expand to include all vehicles stopped along the roadway.
Starting March 27, the law will require drivers to take precautions — including slowing down and moving over — to avoid a crash with all vehicles stopped along the roadway.
“The safety of all New Yorkers is my top priority, especially those pulled over to the side of the road,” Hochul said in the announcement. “If you see that you are approaching a disabled vehicle, slow down and move over as best you can to give them some space.”
Under the law, when a driver is approaching a vehicle stopped along either shoulder of the road, they should either change into a lane not immediately adjacent to the vehicle, or slow down to a reasonable speed if unable to safely make a lane change.
The law first became effective in 2010 to prevent collisions with emergency vehicles that were stopped on the roadway. State lawmakers have expanded the law several times to also cover hazard vehicles, highway–worker vehicles, and tow trucks.
In 2023, Hochul signed a bill to “further strengthen” the law by including this protection for all vehicles stopped on the roadway, her office said.
From 2016–2020, 37 people were killed outside disabled vehicles in New York. Nationally, nearly 300 drivers are struck and killed roadside every year, Hochul’s office said.
IAED accepting sign-ups for manufacturing work program through this Friday
ITHACA, N.Y. — Ithaca Area Economic Development (IAED) is accepting registrations for the Pathways to Manufacturing program, which begins April 8 at the TC3–Ithacaextension center
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SUNY Poly appoints new conference and events coordinator
MARCY, N.Y. — Bringing more than 20 years of experience to the role, Bill Dustin has joined SUNY Polytechnic Institute (SUNY Poly) as its coordinator
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