SYRACUSE — Economic growth is poised to “modestly accelerate” in 2014 as the “drag” from housing, consumer deleveraging, global trade, and fiscal policy recedes.”

That’s according to Gary Keith, regional economist for M&T Bank, the keynote speaker at today’s Economic Forecast Breakfast held by CenterState CEO at the Nicholas J. Pirro Convention Center at Oncenter in Syracuse.

Keith presented an overview of trends in the national and state economies, and their impact on the region, according to a news release CenterState CEO distributed about the forecast breakfast.

“While service-sector hiring should maintain its upward momentum, the extent to which industrial job losses are stemmed, and reversed, will be key in the coming year,” Keith said.

At the same time, a “large majority” of focus-group participants expect the Central New York economy to improve in 2014, believing it is “slowly catching up” to levels not seen since before the economic downturn of 2008, Robert Simpson, president of CenterState CEO, said in the release.

“Businesses and the CenterState New York region as a whole will face an array of pivotal opportunities in 2014. Companies are preparing to embrace those opportunities head on by meeting the emerging demands of their industries, expanding their products and services to new markets, both domestically and abroad, and are looking for new opportunities through collaborations and partnerships,” Simpson said.

The forecast report identifies trends that affected the regional economy in 2013, and outlines opportunities and challenges for 2014.

CenterState CEO used input from 236 member-executives and community participants representing 12 counties, along with “exclusive” data and analysis from Manpower, to generate the forecast report, the economic development and chamber-of-commerce organization said.

For example, the report found 58 percent of respondents indicated an average growth rate of 15 percent. 

In addition, respondents also indicated expectations for 2014. The report found 68 percent expect an increase in sales and revenue, 53 percent anticipate they’ll expand products and services, 49 percent expect a rise in profit, and 32 percent plan to increase capital investments this year.

The report also identifies “several opportunities and reasons for optimism” across sectors in 2014.

The “broad societal desire” for sustainability will create growth in areas such as alternative fuels and energy sources, hybrid technology, and recycling in 2013, the report found.

Exporting is also viewed as a “vitally important component” in sectors such as manufacturing and could serve as a “great engine” for generating revenue in the region, according to the report.

Contact Reinhardt at ereinhardt@cnybj.com

OSWEGO — Operation Oswego County has announced plans for the next installment of its business-plan competition, which has a top prize of $25,000.

The organization refers to the competition as “The Next Great Idea: 2014 Oswego County Business Plan Competition” (NGI).

The NGI competition will accept business-concept proposals from Jan. 22 through April 11, says Austin Wheelock, co-chair of the NGI steering committee.

Wheelock also serves as an economic-development specialist and property manager for Operation Oswego County, an organization focused on economic development in the county, according to its website.

The NGI competition has three phases, including the proposal-acceptance period, and requires the selected participants to develop full business plans and make an in-person “pitch” to a panel of judges, Wheelock says.

After the submission period ends April 11, the judging panel will then evaluate the proposals through early May. Operation Oswego County will then notify the semi-finalists who would then submit full business plans by Sept. 5.

The full plan requires “narratives, résumés, [and] financial projections on the project,” Wheelock says.

The contest culminates with an awards luncheon in November.

The judging panel will include local bankers, business owners, venture capitalists, and angel investors. The panel will determine which proposals will advance to subsequent phases, he says.

The Richard S. Shineman Foundation of Oswego, Operation Oswego County, the Small Business Development Center at SUNY Oswego, KeyBank (NYSE: KEY), and Pathfinder Bank have provided financial support for the program, according to Wheelock.

In addition, the eventual winner can “potentially” leverage the $25,000 equity prize to borrow up to $250,000 in partnership with local banks, the Oswego County Industrial Development Agency, the cities of Oswego and Fulton community-development offices, the U.S. Small Business Administration, and other economic-development agencies and programs, he added.

Past winners have included Lakeside Artisans in 2010, and Ocean Blue Technology, LLC, in the inaugural NGI competition in 2008, Wheelock said.

With the exception of 2012, Operation Oswego County has conducted the business-plan contest every two years, Wheelock says.

“When we first designed it, we wanted to have a year in between every contest so that we could assist the winner in that year to kind of maximize the success that they have,” he adds.

He cited changes to the organization’s staffing and to the funding rules involved as the reasons why organizers opted not to hold the contest in 2012.

More information is available at the website www.oswegocounty.org/ngi, which includes an overview of the event, the application, a competition timeline, guidelines, details on the $25,000 prize, sponsors, and partners, he added.

Contact Reinhardt at ereinhardt@cnybj.com

Even in a period that included the festive holiday shopping season,consumers in Central New York and across New York state remained reluctant to spend their money in the final three months of last year.

Overall consumer sentiment fell in the Syracuse, Utica–Rome, and Binghamton areas in the fourth quarter of 2013, according to the latest quarterly survey of nine metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) of the state that the Siena (College) Research Institute (SRI) released Jan. 14.

The consumer-sentiment figure declined in all metro areas except Long Island, where quarterly sentiment inched up 0.7 points to an index level of 72, which ranked it second among the nine MSAs measured behind New York City at 75.4. 

The index level in New York City fell 4.2 points, according to SRI.

Consumer sentiment in the Syracuse area decreased 2 points to 71.6, which ranked it third behind Long Island among the MSAs measured in the fourth quarter.

The sentiment figure in the Utica–Rome area slipped 0.3 points during the fourth quarter to an index level of 63.1, a sentiment figure that ranks eighth among the state’s nine MSAs in the quarter, according to SRI.

Consumer sentiment in the Binghamton area fell 4.5 points to 61.9, the lowest among the New York MSAs.

An MSA is a core, urbanized area of 50,000 or more people plus adjacent counties with strong social or economic ties, as measured by commuting patterns, according to SRI.

The year didn’t quite live up to the hopes that people had a year ago, says Donald Levy, SRI director.

“This quarter, especially, we saw a little bit of a slide. And we continued just to … hover at a mild level of pessimism, slight pessimism,” Levy says. 

Consumers are just reluctant to spend their money, he adds.

When compared to the same quarter a year ago, the Syracuse overall sentiment figure of 71.6 is down 2.6 points from the 74.2 figure in 2012, according to the SRI data. At the same time, the Utica–Rome figure of 63.1 is down 5.1 points from the 68.2 registered a year ago, and the Binghamton number of 61.9 is down more than 10 points, according to the SRI data.

The intent of the consumer-confidence index is to measure people’s willingness to spend, as opposed to their ability to spend, SRI says. This data reports consumer confidence for the second quarter by MSA and should not be confused with SRI’s monthly New York index.

Buying plans

While consumer confidence is reported as an index number, the buying-plans portion of the survey reflects the percentage of respondents who plan specific expenditures in the next six months.

Of the 36 buying decisions possible across the nine MSAs, consumers boosted their buying plans in 25 product categories in the fourth quarter, and reduced buying plans in 19 categories. And, one category remained 

buying plans are up in seven of nine regions, Levy notes.

“I think there’s been a pent-up demand that’s been building up. I think that the narrative in the press has been that real estate has solidified as an investment and that values have stabilized or begun to increase,” he adds.

And as it has done with its monthly consumer-sentiment surveys, SRI has replaced the computer category with consumer electronics in this survey.

In the Syracuse MSA, buying plans were up 4.2 points at 13.7 percent for cars and trucks, rose 4.9 points to 30 percent for consumer electronics, and increased 1 point to 3.7 percent for homes. Buying plans slipped 0.8 points to 14.6 percent for furniture, and fell 1.7 points to 16.1 percent for major home improvements.

In the Utica–Rome MSA, buying plans rose 3.9 points to 27.7 percent for consumer electronics, increased 2.6 points to 17.5 percent for major home improvements, inched up 1.7 points to 10.7 percent for cars and trucks, and rose 1.5 points to 4.6 percent for homes. Buying plans declined 0.1 points to 14.1 percent for furniture.

In the Binghamton MSA, buying plans rose 0.9 points to 12.9 percent for furniture. Buying plans fell 2.5 points to 6.5 percent for cars and trucks, declined 1.1 points to 3 percent for homes, dipped 0.7 points to 14.2 percent for major home improvements, and dropped 0.7 points to 23.9 percent for consumer electronics.

SRI conducted the quarterly consumer-sentiment survey by random telephone calls to more than 400 respondents over the age of 18 in all of the MSAs, except for New York City and Long Island, which are based on an average of SRI’s monthly consumer-confidence surveys.         

Contact Reinhardt at ereinhardt@cnybj.com