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Low interest rates: Who are the losers?
Ben Bernanke, the Federal Reserve Chairman, reminds us frequently why he has chosen to continue low interest rates and easy money — to boost the economy and encourage investing. He notes the advantage to those paying mortgages and the incentive it provides to stimulate the rebound of the “home industry.” Exporters applaud Quantitative Easing (an […]
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Ben Bernanke, the Federal Reserve Chairman, reminds us frequently why he has chosen to continue low interest rates and easy money — to boost the economy and encourage investing.
He notes the advantage to those paying mortgages and the incentive it provides to stimulate the rebound of the “home industry.” Exporters applaud Quantitative Easing (an opaque term for printing money), which devalues the dollar and enhances the competitive position of our exports. Bankers appreciate the stream of cash which has helped to repair their balance sheets. Large corporations are delighted to find cheap money for investments. Not mentioned by Mr. Bernanke is the ability of our national political leaders in the short term to borrow huge sums, while minimizing the interest paid annually by the federal government.
There is something else about interest rates close to zero and about easy money not highlighted by the Fed Chief. Who are the losers?
Let’s start with the savers and investors. Anyone looking at a savings account or money market statement gasps at the trivial returns. According to A. Gary Shilling, writing on Bloomberg, banks and thrifts, facing low interest earnings, have raised their minimum balance requirements on checking accounts by 23 percent. Consumers also now pay 25 percent more on noninterest checking accounts, and the percentage of noninterest checking accounts free of charges has dropped by 37 percent. Trillions of dollars are now simply “sitting” in accounts. For those living on a fixed income, the meager returns paid by “safe” investments are forcing many to dip into their assets prematurely.
Many baby boomers are coming to grips with the reality that the nest egg they set aside is inadequate in this economic environment to provide a sufficient revenue stream to support retirement. Consequently, many are working longer than planned. This, in turn, has an impact on the employment market where young people are looking for new job openings and others are hoping to advance. For those who believe in déjà vu, this situation is a reminder of Franklin Roosevelt’s rationale for instituting Social Security during the Great Depression: not only guaranteeing dignity for retirees but also encouraging early retirement to make room for the unemployed.
Banks may be happy to receive low-cost funds to repair their balance sheets, but there is also a downside. The relatively flat yield curve, anchored by zero federal funds rate on the short end, is pushed down for longer maturities, at which banks normally lend, by declining Treasury yields. A quick peek at bank yields on assets shows a downward trend.
Next are the insurance companies, particularly life-insurance companies whose cash-value policies and annuities are basically “savings accounts with life-insurance wrappers.” Insurers usually like to invest in bonds, mortgages, and related securities. The declining yields on their portfolios are forcing the companies to cut benefits, raise prices, or design less generous policies.
State government defined-benefit plans for government retirees are another problem, and the taxpayers are the losers. These plans are predicated on a certain rate of return from investments, which in recent years has been wildly optimistic. Exacerbating the problem is the current funding level of most states, which can best be described as inadequate. Since most of these plan payouts are guaranteed, low returns on the pension assets mean that the taxpayers pick up the shortfall.
Defined-benefit plans by corporations also have a problem with underfunding. Shilling notes that the expected median rate of return has fallen from 9.1 in 2002 to 7.8 percent today; this on top of low interest rates on their bond holdings. Add to this the discount rate used to determine the present value of future corporate pension benefits. The rising present value of future liabilities must be offset by ever higher rates of return, benefit cuts, or digging into corporate profits to pay the difference, much to the chagrin of those stockholders anticipating a dividend.
How about consumers? Rising global commodity prices have driven up the cost of everything. Consumers are paying more for basic items at a time when their real incomes are flat.
Finally, we need to look at the impact on emerging markets. Quantitative Easing weakens the American dollar, which leads to higher exchange rates in developing markets like Brazil and Mexico. This in turn leads to weaker exports for the developing countries, slower growth, and currency wars.
Since interest rates are determined by government policy and not by the marketplace, Bernanke’s policies at the Fed must be scored based on the total picture. When you add up the number of losers hurt by a zero-interest policy, I think it outweighs those classified as winners. Why the losers receive so little attention is a mystery, unless the real motivation of the policy is political: continue the spending binge without consequence because interest costs at this point are negligible and the public isn’t complaining.
Wait, I thought the Fed was apolitical? Guess I’ll have to put that question to Ben for an answer.
Norman Poltenson is publisher of The Central New York Business Journal. Contact him at npoltenson@cnybj.com
NBT Bancorp had its eye on Syracuse market before acquisition
Editor’s Note: The Newsmaker Interview portion of Financial Quarterly features a conversation with a CEO of a major Central New York business every quarter. The story discusses key financial issues affecting the newsmaker’s company and industry. SYRACUSE — Leaders at NBT Bancorp, Inc. (NASDAQ: NBTB) have long had their eyes on the Syracuse
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Editor’s Note: The Newsmaker Interview portion of Financial Quarterly features a conversation with a CEO of a major Central New York business every quarter. The story discusses key financial issues affecting the newsmaker’s company and industry.
SYRACUSE — Leaders at NBT Bancorp, Inc. (NASDAQ: NBTB) have long had their eyes on the Syracuse market.
“We kind of had Syracuse surrounded on two or three sides,” NBT President and CEO Martin Dietrich says. “It’s a very logical extension of the market expansion we had under way for a number of years throughout the core part of upstate New York.”
Norwich–based NBT announced its push into the local market in October with its acquisition of Syracuse–based Alliance Financial Corp. (NASDAQ: ALNC). The $233 million deal is expected to close in early 2013. NBT already has branches in the Utica and Binghamton areas and in parts of the North Country.
And now that the bank has a pending foothold in Syracuse, Dietrich says expansion in Central New York is likely to continue, although he adds it’s too early to discuss specific details.
“We like the management team that Alliance has in place,” he says. “They’ve been incredibly successful. We want to bring even more efforts to bear. We would like to think going forward, the combined organization will have an even greater impact on the Syracuse market.”
Alliance, Dietrich notes, has already established good momentum.
“It’s our hope to continue to build on that,” he says. “If you look at how we’ve expanded into other markets, you’ll see that over time, we’ve had pretty good success in deepening our presence in those markets.”
Dietrich says it’s still too early to discuss any possible job cuts that might come as a result of the deal. The acquisition is likely to include some reductions, mainly in support areas, according to NBT.
Following the closing, Alliance Chairman, President, and CEO Jack Webb will join NBT’s board of directors and the company’s management team as executive vice president for strategic support. Richard Shirtz, currently senior vice president and manager of the commercial banking group at Alliance, will become Syracuse regional president for NBT.
NBT had previously considered entering the local market by opening new branches of its own in the area. However, the Syracuse market is too large for a bank to be effective opening one branch office at a time, Dietrich says,
NBT has $6 billion in assets and 135 branches in New York, Pennsylvania, Vermont, Massachusetts, and New Hampshire. The banking company also owns a 401(k) record- keeping firm and an insurance agency.
Alliance Financial has more than $1.4 billion in total assets and 29 offices in Cortland, Madison, Oneida, Onondaga, and Oswego counties. Alliance also owns an equipment-lease financing company and operates an investment-management administration center in Buffalo.
NBT will gain $890 million in net loans held for investment and $1.1 billion in deposits in the acquisition.
Third-quarter profit at Alliance Financial fell more than 37 percent from a year earlier to $2.3 million, or 48 cents a share.
Net income for the third quarter in 2011 received a boost of $472,000 in net securities gains while the same period in 2012 included $598,000 in costs related to the NBT deal.
NBT reported net income of $14.5 million, or 43 cents per share, down 4.5 percent from $15.2 million, or 45 cents, in the third quarter of 2011. Merger-related costs were $600,000 during the quarter, up from $200,000 the previous year.
Contact Tampone at ktampone@cnybj.com
***PULL QUOTE: “We kind of had Syracuse surrounded on two or three sides,” NBT President and CEO Martin Dietrich says. “It’s a very logical extension of the market expansion we had under way for a number of years throughout the core part of upstate New York.”
Editor’s note: The Investment Q&A feature appears regularly in our Financial Quarterly publication, spotlighting area investment professionals and their views on the markets and investments. In this issue, Jim Burns, president of J.W. Burns & Company in DeWitt, chatted with Adam Rombel, editor-in-chief, via phone on Nov. 2, several days before the presidential and Congressional
Become a Central New York Business Journal subscriber and get immediate access to all of our subscriber-only content and much more.
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Editor’s note: The Investment Q&A feature appears regularly in our Financial Quarterly publication, spotlighting area investment professionals and their views on the markets and investments. In this issue, Jim Burns, president of J.W. Burns & Company in DeWitt, chatted with Adam Rombel, editor-in-chief, via phone on Nov. 2, several days before the presidential and Congressional elections.
James (Jim) Burns,
president of J.W. Burns & Company in DeWitt
Business Journal: What is your view on where the financial markets are headed in the coming months?
Burns: Since I have been a guest on your Investment Q&A feature, my economic and stock market forecast has really not changed. I still believe the U.S. economy is experiencing sub-par economic growth due to the tremendous deleveraging that is occurring from consumers, businesses, and municipalities. Conversely, financial markets have done very well over the last three-plus years due to the extraordinary monetary stimulus from the Federal Reserve, combined with strong corporate profits. I believe it’s important for your readers to remember the S&P 500 Index has more than doubled since the March 2009 lows.
Obviously, the real issue that the markets will be focusing on now will be the looming fiscal cliff in the United States. My best guess is that the next few months are going to be quite volatile because there is so much uncertainty on U.S. fiscal policy. I think the probabilities are relatively high that the lame-duck Congress will vote to extend the current tax rates while suspending the automatic spending cuts. So, my message to investors is to hang on and not make rash decisions with their portfolio.
Business Journal: Provide specific recommendations for investments that clients should be making right now.
Burns: I believe that with the high degree of uncertainty in the economy and with fiscal policy, investors should focus their portfolios toward quality growth and yield. As such, I am going to provide two equity recommendations that I believe fit this bill. First, United Parcel Service, Inc. (ticker: UPS) is a company that everyone knows. It’s a durable, brand-name franchise that came public just about 13 years ago to the day. The stock price over this period has been largely stagnant, but the earnings have not. Over the last decade, UPS earnings have gone from $2.14 a share to about $4.60 a share this year. And, its dividend has more than tripled. UPS now yields more than 3 percent. And, its price-to-earnings ratio has come down to about 16. It was overvalued in the late 1990s and early 2000s, but now it’s undervalued.
The next stock that I would recommend is AmerisourceBergen Corp. (ticker: ABC). It’s a full-service, wholesale distributor of pharmaceutical products and other health-care services. I like this stock because it is a high-quality, low-debt business with both consistent earnings and dividend growth. Specifically, the aging baby-boom generation will be looking for less expensive pharmaceuticals. And, AmerisourceBergen helps deliver them. Selling at only 11 times earnings, you’re likely to make money on this stock over the next 3-5 years.
Business Journal: What do you see as the greatest risks that investors need to be aware of and seek to avoid in the coming months?
Burns: As you know, I am a co-host of “Financial Fitness” [a weekly TV show on WCNY]. I had an interview with CNBC’s David Faber on the show and I asked him exactly this question. His response is that he is deeply concerned that so many individual investors have been plowing money into bond funds without really considering the risks. I agree. It reminds me of the technology bubble back in 2000. The outflow from stocks and into bonds, with interest rates at essentially zero, has to be viewed skeptically. On the one hand, you use bonds to dampen volatility. But to move all or the vast majority of your money into an asset class that has absolutely minimal upside and significant downside should interest rates increase, remains the most serious risk to investors today.
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Stay up-to-date on the companies, people and issues that impact businesses in Syracuse, Central New York and beyond.