Stay up-to-date on the companies, people and issues that impact businesses in Syracuse, Central New York and beyond.
OPINION: Manufacturing contracts, recession fears abound ahead of election
Is time running out for Kamala Harris? The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing index [as reported on Sept. 3] once again showed signs of contracting, coming in at 47.2 in August — anything less than 50 indicates less than half of firms reported expansion — which marks the 21 out of the past 22 […]
Become a Central New York Business Journal subscriber and get immediate access to all of our subscriber-only content and much more.
Click here to purchase a paywall bypass link for this article.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing index [as reported on Sept. 3] once again showed signs of contracting, coming in at 47.2 in August — anything less than 50 indicates less than half of firms reported expansion — which marks the 21 out of the past 22 months showing contraction.
The index itself tends to dip during recessions, hitting lows of 35.5 in 1982, 39.4 in 1991, 41.3 in 2001, 34.5 in 2008 and 41.7 in 2020. So, it’s still got a bit more to go to get to recession territory, with its low this cycle coming at 46 in June 2023.
On the other hand, with nearly two years in the red, it is worth noting the only times the ISM stays below 50 for more than 12 months is during recessions. This indicates the point of capitulation might yet be on the horizon, or if the overall contraction was already here, just that this recession might be shallower than predecessors from a manufacturing perspective.
But the number is still worrying, and stock markets engaged in more panic selling on Sept. 3. The Bureau of Labor Statistics [jobs report on Sept. 6 and the next one on Oct. 4 will be important economic indicators as well]. Any bad news from the government there could send markets into another tail spin, to say nothing of the impacts on the imminent election in November between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.
Although not always fatal, economic downturns can hurt incumbents, with recent electoral victims including Gerald Ford in 1976, Jimmy Carter in 1980, George H.W. Bush in 1992, and Donald Trump in 2020. On the other hand, Richard Nixon in 1972, Ronald Reagan in 1984, and George W. Bush in 2004 survived reelection despite having recessions during their terms, although Republicans did not survive the 2008 crash, losing to Barack Obama.
So, any data whatsoever showing continued weakness in the U.S. economy following its bout with inflation after COVID should be front and center in the election itself. If a recession is dead ahead, then the candidates should be addressing it.
But in her sit-down interview with CNN [on Aug. 29], Kamala Harris made it sound like the worst of the economic news was already behind us along with COVID, stating, “A lot of our policies have led to the reality that America recovered faster than any wealthy nation around the world,” and “we had to recover as an economy, and we have done that. I’m very proud of the work that we have done that has brought inflation down to less than 3 percent…”
It looks like the recovery is over. At least she said the word “inflation” a few times in the interview, which was a few more times than she mentioned it compared to her Democratic Party nomination acceptance speech in Chicago [on Aug. 22] — which was none.
Yes, the rate of inflation has dropped from its June 2022 high of 9.1 percent to its current level of 2.9 percent in July — the trouble is that when the economy comes off peak inflation like that, historically, a recession and a commensurate rise in unemployment is usually the only thing that will keep prices from jumping up again. In the meantime, personal incomes have not kept up with consumer prices the entire time Biden and Harris have been in office.
Well, that’s exactly what is happening: Unemployment is up 1.47 million since its December 2022 low, and employment is down 600,000 from its November 2023 high, in the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics household survey, the latter of which is on the brink of going negative on an annual basis but might still kick along for a few more months.
The writing is on the wall.
Robert Romano is the VP of public policy at Americans for Limited Government Foundation, the research arm of Americans for Limited Government, a libertarian political advocacy group. The organization conducts policy research and publishes reports with the goal of reducing the size of the government.
OPINION: Changing world calls for a revised foreign policy
The world is changing in significant ways, and those changes call for new approaches to American foreign policy. That’s the theme of a compelling essay in the journal Foreign Affairs by the writer and policy analyst Ben Rhodes. It’s a timely argument, one that should get attention as we approach the November election. President Joe
Become a Central New York Business Journal subscriber and get immediate access to all of our subscriber-only content and much more.
Click here to purchase a paywall bypass link for this article.
The world is changing in significant ways, and those changes call for new approaches to American foreign policy. That’s the theme of a compelling essay in the journal Foreign Affairs by the writer and policy analyst Ben Rhodes.
It’s a timely argument, one that should get attention as we approach the November election. President Joe Biden has moved in the right direction by promoting a foreign policy based on diplomacy and engagement, Rhodes writes. But the old rules-based global order, led by the United States, no longer really exists, and our policies need to adapt.
“An updated conception of U.S. leadership — one tailored to a world that has moved on from American primacy and the eccentricities of American politics — is necessary to minimize enormous risks and pursue new opportunities,” he writes.
It’s true that the world has moved on. When I was first elected to Congress and began working on foreign policy, we lived in a bipolar world, with the United States and the Soviet Union as the two undisputed global powers. After the Soviet collapse, the world was unipolar: The U.S. was the one superpower. Today, things are more complex.
China is contesting for influence and promotes its autocratic model as an alternative to our democratic norms. Russia is bullying its neighbors. Regional powers like India, Brazil, and Turkey look to play a bigger role. America still has a great deal of influence, and we should use it to advance our interests and promote peace; but we are no longer the dominant world power.
Ben Rhodes is a friend. He worked with me at the Wilson Center and worked on the 9/11 Commission and the Iraq Study Group reports. A former speechwriter for Barack Obama, he’s an incisive thinker and a strong writer who makes his points with eloquence.
He writes that American foreign policy, even under Biden, has had “one foot in the past, yearning nostalgically for American primacy.” Stuck in a post-9/11 mindset, we have embraced undemocratic regimes and turned a blind eye to human-rights abuses. Our support of unfettered markets arguably led to the 2007-08 financial crisis, which produced populist backlash. Our uncritical support of allies — in the Middle East, for example — has made us vulnerable to charges of hypocrisy. “Over the last two decades, American lectures on democracy have increasingly been tuned out,” Rhodes writes.
The essay was published when Biden was still seeking re-election. Now that Vice President Kamala Harris is the Democratic nominee, it is still timely. Harris, if she’s elected, could recalibrate foreign policy, keeping Biden’s focus on diplomacy and effective alliances but adapting to new realities. Of course, if Donald Trump wins in November, we’ll face a different set of circumstances. Rhodes [contends] that a second Trump presidency would embolden autocrats, weaken America’s model of democracy, and turn us away from cooperation with allies.
Rhodes writes that we should forget the idea that the U.S. can dictate the outcome of world affairs. Instead, we need to pursue a foreign-policy agenda that appeals to more of the world’s governments and people, including support for economic growth and clean energy, and cooperation on new technologies. The most important thing we can do, he says, is to “detoxify” our own politics.
“The simple and repeated affirmation that all human life matters equally, and that people everywhere are entitled to live with dignity, should be America’s basic proposition to the world — a story it must commit to in word and deed,” Rhodes writes.
Such a story aligns with the best of America’s traditions and an optimistic view of our role in the world. We can argue about the details, but keeping our humane and democratic values at the center of our foreign policy will serve our interests and those of the world.
Lee Hamilton, 93, is a senior advisor for the Indiana University (IU) Center on Representative Government, distinguished scholar at the IU Hamilton Lugar School of Global and International Studies, and professor of practice at the IU O’Neill School of Public and Environmental Affairs. Hamilton, a Democrat, was a member of the U.S. House of Representatives for 34 years (1965-1999), representing a district in south-central Indiana.
Ronald McDonald House Charities of CNY completes fourth-floor expansion project
SYRACUSE, N.Y. — Ronald McDonald House Charities of Central New York (RMHC of CNY) on Thursday announced the completion of its $1.1 million expansion of
Tompkins County Chamber announces leadership change
ITHACA, N.Y. — Tompkins County Chamber of Commerce and Convention and Visitors Bureau (CVB) President/CEO Jennifer Tavares is leaving the organization after more than a decade to take on a new role, she announced in an email. “This role has provided so many opportunities to do inspiring and exciting work alongside our members and the
Become a Central New York Business Journal subscriber and get immediate access to all of our subscriber-only content and much more.
Click here to purchase a paywall bypass link for this article.
ITHACA, N.Y. — Tompkins County Chamber of Commerce and Convention and Visitors Bureau (CVB) President/CEO Jennifer Tavares is leaving the organization after more than a decade to take on a new role, she announced in an email.
“This role has provided so many opportunities to do inspiring and exciting work alongside our members and the broader community, and I will be forever grateful for this privilege and honor as serving as president of this wonderful organization,” Tavares wrote in the email. “Beginning in mid-October, I will be serving as director of community relations for Cornell University. I am excited for this new chapter and look forward to building on many existing partnerships, identifying new strategic opportunities, and continuing my work with the community.”
The Tompkins County Chamber and CVB board of directors has appointed Peggy Coleman, current VP and CVB director, as interim president of the organization effective Sept. 27.
Coleman has been with the organization for more than eight years and previously served as president of the Corning and Southern Finger Lakes (Steuben County) Convention and Visitors Bureau.
“I know that Peggy and the rest of our great team will be here to support our members and partners and continue the great work of the organization in the months and years ahead,” Tavares wrote.
Mohawk Valley Psychiatric Center unveils new gym and recreation area
UTICA, N.Y. — An $8.5 million addition to the Mohawk Valley Psychiatric Center in Utica is complete, the New York State Office of Mental Health
Michelle Babak, staff engineer at Elmira–based Fagan Engineers and Land Surveyors, P.C., recently received her professional engineering (PE) license in New York state. She graduated
The Financial Services Institute (FSI), an advocacy organization for the independent financial-services industry, has named local financial advisor, Angi Renna of Sterling Financial Group, LLC
Madeleine Keefe, Ph.D. has recently joined BioSpherix after working at Avantor in Rochester. Inspired by the company’s Cytocentric approach to cell processing, she was particularly
Micron to open office at One Lincoln Center in downtown Syracuse
SYRACUSE, N.Y. — Micron Technology Inc. (NASDAQ: MU) says it’s planning to open an office inside One Lincoln Center at 110 W. Fayette St. in downtown Syracuse. Besides the office, the company will also add its name to the façade of One Lincoln Center, a prominent office building in the downtown area. The Boise, Idaho–based
Become a Central New York Business Journal subscriber and get immediate access to all of our subscriber-only content and much more.
Click here to purchase a paywall bypass link for this article.
SYRACUSE, N.Y. — Micron Technology Inc. (NASDAQ: MU) says it’s planning to open an office inside One Lincoln Center at 110 W. Fayette St. in downtown Syracuse.
Besides the office, the company will also add its name to the façade of One Lincoln Center, a prominent office building in the downtown area.
The Boise, Idaho–based chip maker is preparing to build a massive semiconductor campus along Route 31 in the town of Clay.
The planned office space will help house local procurement and facilities-construction teams, along with operations, government and public affairs, and people employees in the years ahead, Scott Gatzemeier, Micron’s corporate VP front end U.S. expansion, said in a blog post on the firm’s website.
Micron’s office will also include a street-level space for a community welcome and recruitment center, Gatzemeier said. That space will serve as the hub for people from across the region to drop in to learn more about the project and to access recruiting resources as the company builds up its local workforce, per the company.
Gatzemeier went on to say that the interior spaces at One Lincoln Center will be designed and outfitted to fit the company’s needs. Micron says it will work with E. Smith Contractors, a local Black-owned business who “shares our commitment” to partnering with New York Minority, Women and Veteran-owned Business Enterprises (MWVBEs) as a part of its expansion efforts in New York.
The company also says it’ll release more information on an official opening as the space gets move-in-ready ahead of next year.
In a statement, Syracuse Mayor Ben Walsh said he’s “honored and excited” to welcome Micron to downtown Syracuse.
“Having members of the Micron team downtown every day will add energy to the center of our city and be a point of pride for all of Syracuse and Onondaga County,” Walsh said. “The company’s decision reflects downtown Syracuse’s important role as the center of growth for our region and the many attractions that make it a great place to live, work and play. I thank Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra and the entire Micron team for choosing downtown Syracuse and for continuing the momentum on their transformational mega fab semiconductor plant in our community.”
In a separate statement, U.S. Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer also reacted to Micron’s announcement.
“Micron will be at the very heart of Syracuse’s renaissance downtown. When I wrote my CHIPS & Science Law it is days like this I envisioned, with new companies locating manufacturing and management Upstate,” Schumer said. “With Micron beaming atop Syracuse’s One Lincoln Center, it is becoming clearer by the day that the sky is the limit for growth in Central NY, and Syracuse’s future will shine brightly for all to see.”
Believe Bowl set for Sept. 6 at Utica University
UTICA, N.Y. — Utica University will kick off this year’s football season with the 7th annual Believe Bowl on Friday, Sept. 6 at 7 p.m.
Stay up-to-date on the companies, people and issues that impact businesses in Syracuse, Central New York and beyond.