NFIB: Small-business optimism recovers in March

Small-business optimism rose two points to 93.4 in March, “mostly reversing” the decline in February but failing to breach the 95 ceiling that has capped the index during the economic recovery. That’s according to the National Federation of Independent Business’ (NFIB’s) latest index of small-business optimism released Tuesday.

Six of the index components improved, two were unchanged, and two declined, the NFIB said in a news release.

The parts of the survey measuring expectations on an improving economy and higher real sales, along with current inventory and plans to increase inventories, improved. The components measuring earning trends and expanding in the present time also improved, the NFIB found.

The index sections gauging plans to increase employment to make capital outlays both declined.

The components measuring current job openings and expected credit conditions remained unchanged.

Overall, the March gain in small-business optimism more or less reversed the February decline. While the optimism index still can’t seem to get above 95, “we can be encouraged that the economy is at least crawling forward and not heading in reverse,” William (Bill) Dunkelberg, NFIB chief economist, said in the news release.

“The outlook for real sales gains accounted for about half of the improvement with inventory satisfaction and inventory investment plans accounting for most of the rest. However, throughout this recovery we’ve seen these types of increases only to have them go nowhere. As long as Washington continues to ignore policies that could restore the middle class, job creation will continue to be sub-par,” Dunkelberg predicted.

Contact Reinhardt at ereinhardt@cnybj.com