April Empire State index returns to positive territory  Responses indicating a strong rebound in orders and shipments helped boost the general business-conditions index of the Empire State Manufacturing Survey back into positive territory in April, rising 36 points to 24.6. The survey results indicate a return to expansionary business conditions in the manufacturing sector. The index […]

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April Empire State index returns to positive territory 

Responses indicating a strong rebound in orders and shipments helped boost the general business-conditions index of the Empire State Manufacturing Survey back into positive territory in April, rising 36 points to 24.6.

The survey results indicate a return to expansionary business conditions in the manufacturing sector.

The index — the monthly gauge of New York’s manufacturing industry — had declined nearly 15 points in March to -11.8. 

The April reading — based on firms responding to the survey — indicates business activity “picked up significantly” in New York, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said in its April 15 report. 

A positive reading indicates expansion or growth in manufacturing activity, while a negative index number points to a decline in the sector. 

The survey found 40 percent of New York manufacturer respondents reported that conditions had improved over the month, while 15 percent said conditions had worsened, the New York Fed said.

Survey details

The new-orders index climbed 36 points to 25.1, and the shipments index rose 42 points to 34.5, pointing to a “strong rebound” in orders and shipments after both declined the prior month, the New York Fed said. 

The unfilled-orders index came in at 17.3. The delivery-times index moved down 11 points to 21.8, pointing to “ongoing increases” in delivery times, and inventories grew modestly.

The index for number of employees posted a second monthly decline, dropping 7 points to 7.3, and the average-workweek index came in at 10.0, pointing to a “small increase” in employment levels and the average workweek. 

The prices-paid index climbed 13 points to 86.4, a “record high,” and the prices-received index retreated 7 points from the prior month’s record high, signaling “ongoing substantial increases” in both input prices and selling prices.

Optimism about the six-month outlook “declined noticeably,” the New York Fed noted.

The index for future business conditions fell 21 points to 15.2, its lowest level since early in the pandemic. 

Longer delivery times, higher prices, and increases in employment are all expected in the months ahead, and capital-spending plans remained firm.

The New York Fed distributes the Empire State Manufacturing Survey on the first day of each month to the same pool of about 200 manufacturing executives in New York. On average, about 100 executives return responses.                 

Eric Reinhardt

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