The Empire State Manufacturing Survey’s general business-conditions index edged down two points to 6.3 in September, but remained at a level indicative of “modest expansion.” Because the index remained in positive territory for a fourth straight month, the results indicated that conditions for New York manufacturers continued to “improve modestly,” according to the Federal […]
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The Empire State Manufacturing Survey’s general business-conditions index edged down two points to 6.3 in September, but remained at a level indicative of “modest expansion.”
Because the index remained in positive territory for a fourth straight month, the results indicated that conditions for New York manufacturers continued to “improve modestly,” according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, which released the survey on Sept. 16.
Slightly more than 25 percent of respondents reported that conditions had improved over the month, while 20 percent said conditions had worsened, the survey found.
The new-orders index inched up two points to 2.4, while the shipments index jumped nearly 15 points to 16.4, indicating that shipments picked up even as orders remained flat.
The 16.4 reading on the shipments index is its highest level in “considerably more than a year,” according to the survey.
The unfilled-orders index was little changed at -6.5. The delivery-time index slipped to -4.3, but the inventories index rose nearly six points to 2.2, its first positive reading in more than a year.
The prices-paid index was little changed at 21.5, while the prices-received index climbed another five points to 8.6.
The survey found labor-market conditions were “mostly steady,” according to the New York Fed.
The index for number of employees fell three points to 7.5 and the average-workweek index edged down to a “neutral” reading of 1.1, the New York Fed said.
Price indexes were steady or slightly higher, the survey found.
The prices-paid index was little changed at 21.5, while the prices-received index rose five points to 8.6, suggesting a “small acceleration” in selling prices, according to the New York Fed.
Indexes for the six-month outlook revealed “increasingly widespread optimism” about future business activity.
The future general-business conditions index rose for the third straight month, climbing three points to 40.6, its highest level since the spring of 2012, according to the New York Fed.
The indexes for both expected new orders and expected shipments rose eight points to about 38, each of which were up about 20 points since June.
The future prices-paid index was little changed at 39.8, while the index for future prices received rose more than five points to 24.7.
The index for expected number of employees slipped four points to 4.3, while the future average-workweek index rose “modestly” but remained negative at -2.2.
The capital-expenditures index slipped nine points to 15.1, after reaching its highest level in more than a year in August.
The technology spending index jumped seven points to 11.8, the New York Fed reported.
In response to a series of supplementary questions, New York manufacturers said that their selling prices rose less than one percent, on average, over the past year. They also predicted an increase of 1.5 percent, on average, over the next 12 months.
These increases roughly matched those reported in last September’s parallel survey, according to the New York Fed.
When asked a separate question about the probability of specified price changes over the next 12 months, the average respondent cited a 44 percent chance that selling prices would remain within 2 percent of current levels. The respondents also indicated a 43 percent chance that prices would rise by 2 percent or more, but just a 3 percent chance that they would rise by at least 8 percent, according to the New York Fed.
The New York Fed distributes the Empire State Manufacturing Survey on the first day of each month to the same pool of about 200 manufacturing executives in New York. On average, about 100 executives return responses.
Contact Reinhardt at ereinhardt@cnybj.com
