A recent Emerson poll of likely voters from Sept. 29 to Oct. 1 once again showed that the top issue in the 2024 election between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is the economy (jobs, inflation, taxes) at 41 percent — followed by immigration at 17 percent. And Trump still holds substantial […]
A recent Emerson poll of likely
voters from Sept. 29 to Oct. 1 once again showed that the top issue in the 2024 election between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump is the economy (jobs, inflation, taxes) at 41 percent — followed by immigration at 17 percent.
And Trump still holds substantial leads over Harris on both issues.
On those saying the economy is the most-important election matter, Trump’s lead was 62.5 percent to 35.2 percent. Among those saying immigration, Trump’s advantage was 84.1 percent to 15.8 percent. The most-important issues remained consistent from September, when Emerson showed 43 percent saying the economy (including inflation) and 15 percent naming immigration.
The other top issues were threats to democracy at 11 percent, abortion access at 7 percent, health care at 6 percent, and housing affordability at 5 percent, with Harris holding substantial leads on all of those issues.
Among democracy voters, Harris led 92.1 percent to 7.9 percent in the Emerson poll. Among abortion voters, Harris had an advantage of 90.2 percent to 8.3 percent. Among health-care voters, Harris led 72.9 percent to 23.7 percent. And on housing affordability, Harris had a big edge of 81.8 percent to 18.2 percent.
On that basis, with voters evenly divided among their issues groups, Harris held a narrow 2 1/2-point lead for the national popular vote, 49.6 percent to 48.2 percent — with 1.2 percent saying someone else and 1 percent indicating they were undecided.
That could still be bad news for Harris, given the recent history of Democrats winning pluralities of the popular vote but not majorities, and ultimately losing narrowly in the Electoral College, as Al Gore and Hillary Clinton did in 2000 and 2016, respectively.
Suffice to say, if the election boils down to the economy and immigration, it could be a very good day for Trump in November.
On the other hand, given the pluralities on the issues of importance — with no clear majority saying any particular issue — and their stability month to month in the Emerson poll and other polls, the race looks very close. And there is little margin for change given only 1 percent say they are undecided. With under a month to go, all eyes will be looking toward get-out-the-vote operations in the critical battleground states. Stay tuned.
Robert Romano is the VP of public policy at Americans for Limited Government, a conservative 501(c)(4) nonprofit organization that says it is dedicated to restoring constitutionally limited government, allowing individuals to pursue life, liberty, and happiness.
Robert Romano
