Post-Trump win, GOP economic confidence jumps, Democrats deflated in N.Y. consumer-sentiment survey

Consumer sentiment among New York Republicans surged in November following the election of Donald Trump as the next President of the United States.

But the sentiment level among New York Democrats plummeted in the same period.

That’s according to the latest quarterly consumer-sentiment survey the Siena (College) Research Institute (SRI) released on Dec. 6.

Douglas Lonnstrom, professor of statistics and finance at Siena College and SRI founding director, said he was “really surprised” at the numbers.

Two months ago, he says, the consumer-sentiment level among New York Democrats was 20 points higher than for the Republicans. After the election, consumer sentiment among Democrats fell 10 points. Sentiment for the Republicans went up 12 points and now the Republicans are two points ahead, he says.

The overall consumer-sentiment level among Republicans was measured at 88.7 in November and among Democrats, it stood at 86.5, the survey found.

“Dramatic shift … all based on the election. Everything else was basically flat … not a lot of movement in any of the other groups,” says Lonnstrom.

Upstate sentiment
Overall consumer sentiment in upstate New York was measured at 86.5 in November, up 1.6 points from the last reading in September.

The September measurement of 84.9 was down 0.3 points from the previous measurement in June of 85.2.

Upstate’s overall sentiment of 86.5 was 1.6 points below the statewide consumer-sentiment level of 88.1, which fell 0.5 points from September.

The figure was 5.7 points lower than the November reading of 93.8 for the entire nation, which rose 2.6 points from September, as measured by the University of Michigan’s consumer-sentiment index.

In the November SRI survey, New York consumer buying plans rose 5.9 points since the September 2016 measurement to reach 22 percent for major home improvements.

Lonnstrom said he was surprised at the increase in plans for major home improvements.

“It looks like … about a quarter of the people are willing to put money in their home over the next six months,” he adds.

Buying plans were down 3.5 points at 14.6 percent for cars and trucks; fell 1.3 points to 46.3 percent for consumer electronics; slid 3.1 points at 24.4 percent for furniture; and inched down 0.3 points to 8.8 percent for homes.

Gas and food prices
In SRI’s quarterly analysis of gas and food prices, 34 percent of upstate respondents said the price of gas was having a serious impact on their monthly budgets, up from 30 percent in September but down from 36 percent in June.

In addition, 29 percent of statewide respondents said the price of gas was having a serious impact on their monthly spending plans, equal to the respondents’ gas-price concern in September and down from 33 percent in June.

“Gas prices are basically the same. They haven’t moved at all, and as a result concern about gas prices didn’t move at all,” says Lonnstrom.

When asked about food prices, 67 percent of upstate respondents indicated the price of groceries was having a serious impact on their finances, up from 59 percent in September and 61 percent in June.

At the same time, 63 percent of statewide respondents indicated the price of food was having a serious impact on their monthly finances, equal to the respondents’ food-price concern in September and up from 61 percent in June.

SRI conducted its survey of consumer sentiment between Nov. 7 and Nov. 21 by telephone calls conducted in English to 800 New York residents.

It has an overall margin of error of plus or minus 4.0 percentage points, according to SRI.

Contact Reinhardt at ereinhardt@cnybj.com