Siena analyst: Stock market, Trump jobs message drove March surge in N.Y. consumer sentiment

New Yorkers seem very willing to spend their money, and an analyst with Siena College points to the recent stock-market rally and the jobs message from President Donald Trump as possible factors influencing consumers.

Consumer sentiment in upstate New York was measured at 96.7 in March, up 10.2 points compared to the last measurement in November.

The upstate sentiment level and the statewide sentiment reading of 94.1, up 6 points from November, are now the highest they’ve been since 2000. That’s according to the latest quarterly survey the Siena (College) Research Institute (SRI) released April 5.

The statewide sentiment level was 2.8 points lower than the March reading of 96.9 for the U.S., which rose 3.1 points from November, as measured by the University of Michigan’s consumer-sentiment index.

“I was really surprised by these numbers,” Douglas Lonnstrom, professor of statistics and finance at Siena College and SRI founding director, tells CNYBJ.
Lonnstrom contends two factors are driving the surge in New Yorkers’ willing to spend money, including the performance of the stock market, which impacts pension plans, retirement plans, and portfolios.

“People are feeling wealthier and therefore they’re willing to spend and also businesses are feeling better,” he says.

He also believes New Yorkers have so far “bought into” President Donald Trump’s message about bringing jobs and investment back to the U.S. and seeing it as “very good, very significant.”

Political affiliations are also playing a big role in the changes in consumer sentiment, the SRI analyst indicates.

Consumer sentiment among New York Republicans is “through the roof,” up 15 points since the last quarter and 27 points since last year.

Beyond respondent demographics, Upstate confidence is also higher than that measured in New York City and that hasn’t happened since 2002, Lonnstrom notes.

“Upstaters are just hoping that jobs are going to come back; whether they will or not, I don’t know — they’re certainly feeling that way right now,” he added.

In March, buying plans were up 3.9 percentage points since the November 2016 measurement for to 18.5 percent for cars/trucks; increased 5.6 points to 30 percent
for furniture; and were up 1.3 points to 10.1 percent for homes.

“Home buying is still pretty strong … One out of 10, that’s a lot of people saying I’m going to buy a house in the next six months,” says Lonnstrom.

Buying plans were down 3.6 points 42.7 percent for consumer electronics; and fell 1.2 points to 20.8 percent for major home improvements, according to the SRI data.

Outlook “pretty strong”
Lonnstrom also noted that the Siena survey asks respondents how their family is doing financially this year compared to a year ago.

In this survey, 77 percent of respondents said they are doing better or the same as a year ago.

Researchers also ask about how respondents think they’ll be individually a year from now. The answer jumps up to 84 percent with only 11 percent thinking they’re going to be worse off a year from now.

“Those are pretty strong numbers,” says Lonnstrom.

The Siena survey also asks respondents how they think business will be in New York in the next year. More than 50 percent said they believe business is going to do well in the next year, he added.

SRI conducted its survey of consumer sentiment between March 1 and March 15 by telephone calls conducted in English to 804 New York residents.

It has an overall margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, according to SRI.