New Yorkers seem to sense the return of a “thriving” market in which both the buyers and sellers profit from strong real-estate values. That’s the analysis from Don Levy, director of the Siena (College) Research Institute (SRI), which released its quarterly consumer real-estate sentiment scores for New York state on April 17. The survey measured […]
New Yorkers seem to sense the return of a “thriving” market in which both the buyers and sellers profit from strong real-estate values.
That’s the analysis from Don Levy, director of the Siena (College) Research Institute (SRI), which released its quarterly consumer real-estate sentiment scores for New York state on April 17.
The survey measured real-estate sentiment in the first quarter on buying and selling now and in the future in the Upstate region, New York City, and its suburbs.
A sentiment score of zero in any category reflects equal levels of pessimism and optimism among survey respondents. Scores above zero reflect optimism and scores below zero reflect pessimism, according to SRI.
The overall-current sentiment is 7.8 in the Upstate region, up 0.4 points from the fourth quarter. The overall-future sentiment is 18.9 in the Upstate region, which is down four points from the final quarter of 2012.
New York's overall-current sentiment is 6.4, up 1.3 points from the fourth quarter, and the overall-future sentiment is 26.7, down 1.2 points from the fourth quarter.
For the second consecutive quarter, the assessment of housing values in every region of the state is positive and predicted to increase by New Yorkers, Levy said in a news release.
“Even more importantly, sellers, who for so long were seen as hostages of the financial meltdown now, while not yet universally in the catbird seat, are seen as in a much stronger position and headed upwards. Buyers are still able to get value, but they are no longer able to demand concessions from every seller. All numbers, strong overall-market grade, strengthening sellers and modulating buyers, point towards robust real-estate health,” Levy said.
The overall current real-estate sentiment score among New Yorkers in the first quarter is 6.4, above the point where equal percentages of citizens feel optimistic and pessimistic about the housing market.
The score is up 1.3 points from last quarter, according to the SRI survey. Looking forward, the overall-future score is 26.7. The figure is down from 27.9 last quarter, indicating that New Yorkers expect the overall real-estate market and the value of property to increase over the next year.
Consumers see now as an improved time to sell with a score below breakeven at -4.8 (up 10.0 from last quarter), and as a very good time to buy with a high positive score of 23.1.
What the sentiment scores mean
Current scores measure sentiment towards the present relative to the recent past while future projects change in sentiment from the current to one year from now.
An increase from a current score to a future score denotes a positive change in sentiment relative to the present.
In every case when considering any of the six sentiment scores, a net positive number indicates that the collective sentiment is such that people sense improvement while a negative net score predicts or measures a collective recognition of worsening.
Each real-estate sentiment score is derived through statistical diffusion weighted to consider response intensity.
A sentiment score of zero (0) in any category reflects a breakeven point at which equal levels of optimism and pessimism among the population have been measured relative to the overall market, or buying or selling real estate.
Scores can range from an absolute low of -100 to a high of 100 but scores below -50 or above +50 are both rare and extreme.
If 100 percent of people describe the overall market or either buying or selling as greatly improved the sentiment score would equal 100. Conversely, universal extreme pessimism would score -100. Scores measure and reflect the collective sentiment of residents of New York.
The SRI survey of Consumer Real Estate Sentiment was conducted throughout January, February, and March 2013 by random telephone calls to 2,409 New York State residents age 18 or older. As the sentiment scores are developed through a series of calculations, “margin of error” does not apply.
Contact Reinhardt at ereinhardt@cnybj.com