Siena poll: Katko has 10-point lead over Maffei in local congressional race

SYRACUSE, N.Y. — Challenger John Katko (R–Camillus) has a 10-point lead over the incumbent U.S. Representative Daniel Maffei (D–DeWitt) in the hotly contested race for New York’s 24th Congressional District seat.

That’s according to the latest Syracuse.com / Post-Standard / Siena College 24th Congressional District Poll released early Tuesday.

The headline in the Siena news release labeled the results as a “dramatic turn around,” noting that Katko trailed Maffei by 8 points in poll results that Siena issued on Sept. 21.

In this latest poll, Katko leads Maffei 52 percent to 42 percent, having previously trailed 50-42 percent, according to the Siena data.

Maffei continues his large lead in Syracuse, though down a little, according to Siena. What had been a “closely divided” electorate in the remainder of the district, however, is now “solidly” behind Katko, Siena said.

“While Maffei continues to hold a commanding 32-point lead in Syracuse, down from 48 points, Katko has opened a 21-point lead in the rest of Onondaga County and a 13-point lead in the [district’s] other counties. The areas outside of Syracuse had previously been neck-and-neck,” Siena pollster Steven Greenberg said in the news release.

Both campaigns and outside groups have flooded the Syracuse–area TV and radio airwaves with ads in recent weeks, usually attacking the opponent.

Researchers conducted the Siena poll between Oct. 22 and Oct. 24 by telephone calls to 704 likely voters drawn from a list of registered voters in the 24th Congressional District, which encompasses all of Onondaga, Cayuga, and Wayne counties, and the western part of Oswego County.

Determined by a “stringent screen,” likely voters were statistically adjusted to reflect historic turnout by gender and age, and by party registration, according to Siena.

The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points, Siena added.

The Maffei campaign today released the results of its own poll showing the Congressman in the lead. The poll conducted by Global Strategy Group between Oct. 20 and Oct. 22 showed Maffei leads Katko 45 percent to 40 percent in the Congressional race. Global Strategy Group is a New York City–based public-affairs firm. That poll surveyed 400 likely voters in the district and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points, according to Global Strategy Group.

The Business Journal News Network (BJNN) also conducted an unscientific poll on its website that focused on the Maffei-Katko race. The poll was open between Oct. 13 and Oct. 27.

BJNN asked website visitors: “Regardless of which candidate you prefer, who do you think will win the race between Dan Maffei and John Katko for the 24th Congressional District seat?”

The poll found 148 respondents, or 56 percent, think Katko will prevail, while 100 respondents, or 38 percent, believe Maffei will win re-election. The other 14 respondents, or 5 percent, didn’t know or had no opinion.

Contact Reinhardt at ereinhardt@cnybj.com