New York state consumers’ view of the real-estate market remains “positive,” but the market itself may be changing somewhat. That’s according to Donald Levy, director of the Siena (College) Research Institute (SRI), which released its latest survey report of consumer real-estate sentiment in the Empire State on Feb. 3. The New York real-estate market has […]
New York state consumers’ view of the real-estate market remains “positive,” but the market itself may be changing somewhat.
That’s according to Donald Levy, director of the Siena (College) Research Institute (SRI), which released its latest survey report of consumer real-estate sentiment in the Empire State on Feb. 3.
The New York real-estate market has moved more toward that zone that SRI has identified as “a thriving zone” where everybody wins and consumers feel as though values are increasing. That is where the state has been for the past four or five quarters, especially the last three.
“It’s interesting that perception of buying [in relation to] selling has changed as much as it has. It’s at the point now where across the entire state … they’re potentially perceived as equal..,” Levy says.
A deeper analysis, according to Levy, suggests that New York City is influencing those numbers.
The SRI data points to New York City having transitioned more towards a seller’s market already, compared to a buyers’ market, he says.
“I’m willing to conclude that the perception is we’re moving in that direction because the selling future numbers are so high across every region of the state, while the current and more so even the future prospects for buyers remain positive in both the suburbs and Upstate, they’re even tilting to the negative in New York City, hence the headline the pendulum is swinging,” Levy says.
Both housing inventory and interest rates will influence the market. Interest rates appear to remain low in the short term, he says.
Despite the data, it’s not yet a time to “worry,” Levy contends, noting the New York real-estate market remains on “very solid footing.”
The overall current real-estate sentiment score among New Yorkers in the fourth quarter of 2013 is 12.0, down 5.7 points from the third quarter, according to the SRI data.
The figure is also above the point where equal percentages of citizens feel optimistic and pessimistic about the housing market.
Looking forward, the overall future real-estate sentiment score is 19.2, down from 24.8 last quarter, SRI said.
The sentiment figure also indicates New Yorkers expect the overall real-estate market and the value of property to increase over the next year.
Consumers also see the present as an improved time to sell with a score above breakeven at 3.1, down 9.1 points from last quarter, according to SRI.
At the same time, they also see it as a good time to buy with a positive score of 6.8, which is down 5.7 points from the third quarter.
The overall current real-estate sentiment score among upstate New Yorkers in the third quarter is 15.3, down 4.1 points from last quarter. The overall future real-estate sentiment score is 14.1, down 2.8 points from the third quarter.
A sentiment score of zero (0) in any category reflects a breakeven point at which the survey measured equal levels of optimism and pessimism among the population relative to the overall market, or buying or selling real estate, according to SRI.
Scores can range from an absolute low of -100 to a high of 100, but scores below -50 or above +50 are both rare and extreme, SRI said.
SRI conducted the survey of consumer real-estate sentiment throughout October, November, and December by random telephone calls to 1,994 New York state residents age 18 or older. As the sentiment scores are developed through a series of calculations, “margin of error” does not apply, SRI says.
Contact Reinhardt at ereinhardt@cnybj.com