Siena: Upstate consumer sentiment dips in Q1

Statewide sentiment hits 21-month high   

Consumer sentiment in upstate New York was measured at 64.6 in the first quarter of 2023, down 0.9 points from the last reading of 65.5 in the fourth quarter of 2022.

That’s according to the latest quarterly survey of upstate and statewide consumer sentiment that the Siena College Research Institute (SRI) released April 5. 

Upstate’s overall sentiment of 64.6 in the first quarter was 10.4 points below the statewide consumer-sentiment level of 75.0, which rose 2.7 points from the fourth quarter. 

The statewide figure was 13 points higher than the first-quarter reading of 62.0 for the entire nation, which was up 2.3 points from the fourth-quarter number, as measured by the University of Michigan’s consumer-sentiment index.

The current index for the entire state increased more than 3 points to 70.1 and the future index increased just over 2 points, resulting in New York’s measure of future expectations moving from 75.9 last quarter to 78.1 today. Overall confidence remains higher in New York state than across the nation. 

Future confidence in New York is now over three points above the breakeven point of balanced optimism and pessimism and 18.9 points higher than national future confidence.

Driven by increasing optimism among New York City residents, younger New Yorkers, Democrats and men, consumer sentiment was up this past quarter reaching its highest level since June 2021, Don Levy, SRI director, said in the Siena report. 

“But many, including Upstaters, Republicans, those over 55 and women saw little or no gain in confidence, and they continue to express far more pessimism than optimism. Overall, New York’s index, both an assessment of current conditions and most especially future expectations outpace national sentiment,” Levy said. “Gasoline price worries have lessened but remain well above early pandemic lows while food price impact on budgets is now at 81 percent, the highest we have seen in 14 years of tracking this measurement. Still, expect spring spending to be strong as all buying plans are up with nearly 40 percent of residents expecting their financial condition to improve over the next year and nearly a third saying that now is a good time to purchase major consumer goods.”

In the first quarter of 2023, buying plans were up 5.6 percentage points from the fourth-quarter measurement to 17.1 for homes; rose 2.7 points to 28.2 percent for cars and trucks; increased 2.4 points to 30.8 percent for furniture; rose 1.9 points to 28.0 percent for major home improvements; and were up 0.2 points to 45 percent for consumer electronics, SRI said. 

Gas and food prices

In SRI’s quarterly analysis of gas and food prices, 70 percent of upstate New York respondents said the price of gas was having a serious impact on their monthly budgets, which is up from 68 percent in the fourth quarter of 2022 and down from 74 percent in the third and second quarters of last year.

In addition, 63 percent of statewide respondents said the price of gas was having a serious impact on their monthly spending plans, which was down from 66 percent in the fourth quarter of last year and 69 percent in third and second quarters of 2022.

When asked about food prices, 79 percent of upstate respondents indicated the price of groceries was having a serious impact on their finances, down from 80 percent in the fourth quarter of 2022 and from 84 percent in the third quarter of last year.

At the same time, 81 percent of statewide respondents indicated the price of food was having a serious impact on their monthly finances, up from 79 percent in fourth quarter of 2022 and 78 percent in the third quarter.

SRI conducted its survey of consumer sentiment from March 6-9 by random telephone calls to 406 New York adults via landline and cell phone. It has an overall margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points, according to SRI.