Upstate New York consumers seem willing to spend now but their concern about the future is keeping the dollars in their wallets. But consumers nationwide appear to be a bit more optimistic. Consumer sentiment in upstate New York inched up 0.4 points to 69.2 in April, according to the latest monthly survey the Siena (College) […]
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Upstate New York consumers seem willing to spend now but their concern about the future is keeping the dollars in their wallets. But consumers nationwide appear to be a bit more optimistic.
Consumer sentiment in upstate New York inched up 0.4 points to 69.2 in April, according to the latest monthly survey the Siena (College) Research Institute (SRI) released May 6.
Upstate’s overall-sentiment index of 69.2 is a combination of the current sentiment and future-sentiment components. Upstate’s current-sentiment index of 77.3 climbed 4.2 points from March, while the future-sentiment level decreased 1.9 points to 64, according to the SRI data.
Upstate’s overall sentiment was 5.2 points below the statewide consumer-sentiment level of 74.4, which edged up 0.5 points from March, SRI said.
New York’s consumer-sentiment index was 9.7 points lower than the April figure of 84.1 for the entire nation, which climbed 4.1 points from March, as measured by the University of Michigan’s consumer-sentiment index.
New York consumers “really are treading water,” when it comes to consumer sentiment, says Douglas Lonnstrom, professor of statistics and finance at Siena College and SRI founding director.
“We’re hovering around that break-even point where optimism equals pessimism. That gives us an index number of about 76. And our [sentiment-component] numbers are like 77, 74, 72, and we’re just staying right there,” Lonnstrom says.
All three sentiment components in New York, including overall, current, and future, are now trailing the nation’s consumers for the first time since last August, he notes.
Since that time, New York’s future-sentiment reading had been above the same component for the entire nation, but not in April.
The future-sentiment segment for New York fell 1.2 points to 72.3, while the nation’s future-sentiment level of 74.7 is up 4.7 points, according to the SRI data.
“It’s very clear the nation is feeling better, and New Yorkers [are] not feeling that good,” Lonnstrom says.
The nation’s sentiment figures also include a 3 point increase to 98.7 on the current-sentiment component, Lonnstrom says.
When compared with the previous three years, the state’s overall-confidence sentiment of 74.4 is up 0.5 points from April 2013, down 0.2 points from April 2012, and has increased 9.5 points compared to April 2011, according to the SRI data. The sentiment index measured 62.1 in April 2009.
In March, buying plans of New York state consumers inched up 0.2 points to 4 percent for homes. Buying plans were down 1.1 points to 10.6 percent for cars and trucks, fell 3.2 points to 29.9 percent for consumer electronics, decreased 2.8 points to 19.1 percent for furniture, and slipped 1.1 points to 16.9 percent for major home improvements.
“We get some people [who] say it’s a great time to buy, but I don’t have any money,” Lonnstrom quips.
The buying plans reflect what the index is indicating: that consumer confidence is “flat,” he added.
Gas and food prices
In SRI’s monthly analysis of gas and food prices, 69 percent of Upstate respondents said the price of gas was having a serious impact on their monthly budgets, up from 64 percent in March.
In addition, 56 percent of statewide respondents indicated concern about the price of gas, off slightly from 57 percent in March, according to SRI.
“For gas that makes sense because we [Upstate residents] use much more gas for cars up here. People in New York City don’t have cars,” he says.
When asked about food prices, 70 percent of Upstate respondents indicated that the price of groceries was having a serious impact on their finances, up from 66 percent in March.
About 69 percent of statewide respondents expressed concern about their food bills, up from 68 percent in February.
“Beef [prices are] going to go way up, and that’s scaring people and we can see that now,” Lonnstrom says.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service projects that beef prices will rise faster than almost any other product this year, according to an April 18 article published on marketwatch.com.
SRI conducted its survey of consumer sentiment in April by random telephone calls to 623 New York residents over the age of 18.
As consumer sentiment is expressed as an index number developed after statistical calculations to a series of questions, “margin of error” does not apply, according to SRI.
Buying plans, which are shown as a percentage based on answers to specific questions, have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 points, SRI said.
Contact Reinhardt at ereinhardt@cnybj.com
