Small business optimism inches down in May

Small-business owners’ optimism fell slightly in May as sales expectations declined, according to a monthly index from the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB).

The Small Business Optimism Index dipped a tenth of a point to 94.4. The index remains low by historical standards, according to the NFIB. It also fluctuated little in comparison to recent months, when it posted a 1.8-point drop in March and a 2-point increase in April.

“The needle hasn’t been moved very far,” says NFIB New York State Director Mike Durant. “You’re sort of bobbing like a buoy on the water, but the waters aren’t necessarily calm. They are stormy waters.”

In May, business owners slashed their expectations for future sales. A seasonally adjusted net 2 percent of owners expect higher sales over the next three months, down 4 points from April, when 6 percent anticipated higher sales.

Business owners did take a slightly less negative view of the economy as a whole. A net negative 2 percent predicted better business conditions in six months, seasonally adjusted. That’s up 3 points from April, when a net negative 5 percent saw better business conditions down the road.

The negative result indicates more business owners expect worse conditions than better conditions. The NFIB calculates net percentages by subtracting pessimistic survey answers from optimistic answers. A positive net percentage indicates more optimistic business owners, but a negative percentage shows predominant pessimism.

The NFIB, a nonprofit organization representing members in all 50 states and in Washington, D.C., calculated the index after randomly surveying 681 of its members in May.

Contact Seltzer at rseltzer@cnybj.com