Survey: New York manufacturing activity “held steady” in July

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey general business-conditions index fell 6 points in July to 1.1.

The index had climbed 38 points in June to 6.6 after plummeting 43 points in May to -31.8. The general business-conditions index is the monthly gauge on New York’s manufacturing sector. 

The July reading — based on firms responding to the survey — indicates business activity “held steady” in New York State, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said in its July 17 report. 

A positive reading indicates expansion or growth in manufacturing activity, while a negative index number shows a decline in the sector. 

The survey found 29 percent of respondents reported that conditions had improved over the month, while 27 percent said that conditions had worsened, the New York Fed said.

It also found that new orders “inched up” and shipments “expanded.”

Survey details

The new-orders index was little changed at 3.3, indicating that orders edged higher, and the shipments index fell 9 points to 13.4, pointing to an increase in shipments, “though at a slower pace than last month,” the New York Fed said. 

At -8.8, the unfilled-orders index remained negative for a third straight month, a sign that unfilled orders continued to decline. The inventories index also remained negative at -10.8, indicating that inventories moved lower. 

The delivery times index came in at -6.9, suggesting that delivery times shortened.

The index for number of employees climbed into positive territory for the first time since January and, at 4.7, “pointed to a small increase” in employment. The average-workweek index rose to 0.3, indicating little change in hours worked. 

Price increases continued to “moderate.” The prices-paid index fell 5 points to 16.7, and the prices-received index fell 5 points to 3.9. The prices-paid index has now fallen nearly 50 points over the past year, and the prices-received index has declined a “cumulative” 27 points, the New York Fed said.

The index for future business conditions edged down to 14.3, indicating that while conditions are expected to improve, optimism remained subdued. New orders and shipments are expected to increase modestly, delivery times are anticipated to continue to shorten, and employment is expected to expand modestly. 

The capital spending index fell 5 points to 2.9, suggesting that capital spending plans “remained soft.”

The New York Fed distributes the Empire State Manufacturing Survey on the first day of each month to the same pool of about 200 manufacturing executives in New York. On average, about 100 executives return responses.