Syracuse, Binghamton, Utica consumers lose confidence during Q3

Consumers in Syracuse, Binghamton, and Utica lowered their willingness to spend in the third quarter of 2013, according to new polling the Siena (College) Research Institute (SRI) released today.

SRI’s overall consumer confidence index for Syracuse eroded 0.6 points to 68 over the quarter. Its index for Binghamton slipped 0.2 points to 65.6, and its index for Utica slid one point to 62.4.

Those readings are below the index’s break-even point of about 76. That’s the point at which equal numbers of consumers express optimism and pessimism. Confidence results below 76 indicate mostly pessimistic consumers.

Overall confidence dropped in eight out of nine of the state’s metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs). It moved up only in New York City, where it rose 3.1 points to 82.4.

Binghamton’s 0.2 point drop was the smallest in the state. Albany was home to the largest dip, 5.1 points to 73.6.

Confidence levels would have been much lower this quarter if not for an upswing in September, according to Douglas Lonnstrom, professor of statistics and finance at Siena College and SRI founding director.

“July and August were weak, and September turned it around,” he says. “This was a strange quarter in that the direction shifted dramatically. These numbers would have been a lot worse if September hadn’t been so good.”

SRI developed its quarterly confidence indexes after surveying consumers over the age of 18 using random telephone calls. Each MSA index is based on over 400 respondents, except for New York City’s and Long Island’s indexes. SRI calculates those quarterly indexes using averages of its monthly consumer-confidence surveys.

Contact Seltzer at rseltzer@cnybj.com