Syracuse consumer confidence falls in Q2

Central New York consumers grew wary of opening their wallets in the second quarter of 2012, according to an index from the Siena (College) Research Institute (SRI) that showed declining willingness to spend in the region.

Overall consumer confidence in the Syracuse metropolitan statistical area (MSA) dropped 2.7 points to 68.6. The area ranked seventh in confidence out of nine MSAs in New York State.

It remained below the SRI index’s break-even point, which is just above 76. The break-even point is the reading at which consumers express an equal amount of optimism and pessimism. Index results above the point indicate mostly optimistic consumers, while results below the point reflect prevalent pessimism.

The Binghamton and Utica MSAs joined Syracuse in losing consumer confidence. Overall confidence slipped 0.1 points in Binghamton to 65.8, and it tumbled 4.9 points in Utica to 63.4. Binghamton ranked eighth in the state in consumer confidence. Utica ranked ninth.

Only one other MSA in New York State lost overall confidence. New York City’s consumer confidence fell 2.2 points to 79.3. However, the city still managed to maintain the top confidence level in the state.

The five remaining metropolitan areas were all home to increasing overall confidence. That leaves quarter-to-quarter results for the state as a whole looking like a mixed bag, according to Douglas Lonnstrom, professor of statistics and finance at Siena College and SRI founding director.

“It’s kind of like we’re moving laterally here,” he says. “And I don’t see anything in the infrastructure that’s going to cause us to dramatically go up or down. We just seem to be drifting along right here.”

Albany hosted the state’s largest increase in overall consumer confidence, 3.4 points to 78.7. Meanwhile, confidence climbed by 1.4 points in both Buffalo and the Mid-Hudson region. It moved up to 72.2 points in Buffalo and 70.2 in the Mid-Hudson MSA.

Overall confidence crept up 1.1 points in Rochester to 78.7. It increased 0.4 points in Long Island to 73.5.

While Syracuse, Binghamton, and Utica lagged behind the rest of the state in quarter-to-quarter comparisons, all nine of New York’s MSAs have experienced confidence gains from a year ago, Lonnstrom says.

“Some of them are modest, and Syracuse is one of those — up about 7 percent from a year ago,” he says. “Some are up quite a bit. Binghamton is up 20 percent.”

In Utica, consumer confidence has increased by 8 percent since the second quarter of 2011, the SRI index shows.

SRI develops the quarterly confidence indexes by surveying consumers over the age of 18 in random telephone calls. Each MSA index is based on more than 400 respondents, with the exception of the indexes for New York City and Long Island. SRI calculates those quarterly indexes using averages of its monthly consumer-confidence surveys.

Current and future confidence

Syracuse consumers didn’t just lose overall confidence between the first and second quarters of 2012. They also expressed a declining willingness to spend under current conditions and in the future.

The MSA’s current confidence skidded 5 points to 71.6. Its future confidence edged down 1.2 points to 66.7.

In Utica, current confidence descended 5.7 points to 68.2. Future confidence dipped 4.4 points to 60.3.

Current consumer confidence increased in Binghamton by 1.9 points to 71.3. But future confidence ticked down 1.4 points to 62.3.

Buying plans

SRI also surveyed consumers in the state’s nine metropolitan areas about their plans for making major purchases in five different categories. The institute asked if consumers plan to buy a car or truck, a computer, furniture, a home, or a major home improvement in the next six months.

The portion of consumers planning to make major purchases decreased in 30 of the 45 possible categories across the state. It increased in 14 categories and stayed the same in one.

Consumers in the Syracuse MSA cut back on plans to purchase cars and trucks, computers, and furniture. They boosted plans to buy homes and major home improvements.

“[In] Syracuse, you were kind of mixed, but still a little bit on the low side,” Lonnstrom says.

SRI’s survey found that 11.9 percent of Syracuse–area consumers plan to buy a car or truck, down 2 points from the first quarter of 2012. The reading is also lower than the survey’s historical average of 12.8 percent.

Only 9.2 percent of the region’s consumers plan to buy a computer, a drop of 2.6 points from the previous quarter and below the historical average of 10.5 percent. And 11.9 percent of consumers expect to buy furniture, down 3.2 points from last quarter and under the survey’s 14.8 percent historical average.

The news was better for Central New York’s housing market, as 3.4 percent of consumers planned to buy homes, up 0.6 points from the first quarter of 2012. That was slightly below the survey’s historical average of 3.6 percent.

Major home improvements also received a boost, with 16.8 percent of consumers planning to make purchases in that category. That’s up 1.3 points from last quarter but still less than the survey’s historical average of 19.5 percent.    

Central New York consumers grew wary of opening their wallets in the second quarter of 2012, according to an index from the Siena (College) Research Institute (SRI) that showed declining willingness to spend in the region.

Overall consumer confidence in the Syracuse metropolitan statistical area (MSA) dropped 2.7 points to 68.6. The area ranked seventh in confidence out of nine MSAs in New York State.

It remained below the SRI index’s break-even point, which is just above 76. The break-even point is the reading at which consumers express an equal amount of optimism and pessimism. Index results above the point indicate mostly optimistic consumers, while results below the point reflect prevalent pessimism.

The Binghamton and Utica MSAs joined Syracuse in losing consumer confidence. Overall confidence slipped 0.1 points in Binghamton to 65.8, and it tumbled 4.9 points in Utica to 63.4. Binghamton ranked eighth in the state in consumer confidence. Utica ranked ninth.

Only one other MSA in New York State lost overall confidence. New York City’s consumer confidence fell 2.2 points to 79.3. However, the city still managed to maintain the top confidence level in the state.

The five remaining metropolitan areas were all home to increasing overall confidence. That leaves quarter-to-quarter results for the state as a whole looking like a mixed bag, according to Douglas Lonnstrom, professor of statistics and finance at Siena College and SRI founding director.

“It’s kind of like we’re moving laterally here,” he says. “And I don’t see anything in the infrastructure that’s going to cause us to dramatically go up or down. We just seem to be drifting along right here.”

Albany hosted the state’s largest increase in overall consumer confidence, 3.4 points to 78.7. Meanwhile, confidence climbed by 1.4 points in both Buffalo and the Mid-Hudson region. It moved up to 72.2 points in Buffalo and 70.2 in the Mid-Hudson MSA.

Overall confidence crept up 1.1 points in Rochester to 78.7. It increased 0.4 points in Long Island to 73.5.

While Syracuse, Binghamton, and Utica lagged behind the rest of the state in quarter-to-quarter comparisons, all nine of New York’s MSAs have experienced confidence gains from a year ago, Lonnstrom says.

“Some of them are modest, and Syracuse is one of those — up about 7 percent from a year ago,” he says. “Some are up quite a bit. Binghamton is up 20 percent.”

In Utica, consumer confidence has increased by 8 percent since the second quarter of 2011, the SRI index shows.

SRI develops the quarterly confidence indexes by surveying consumers over the age of 18 in random telephone calls. Each MSA index is based on more than 400 respondents, with the exception of the indexes for New York City and Long Island. SRI calculates those quarterly indexes using averages of its monthly consumer-confidence surveys.

Current and future confidence

Syracuse consumers didn’t just lose overall confidence between the first and second quarters of 2012. They also expressed a declining willingness to spend under current conditions and in the future.

The MSA’s current confidence skidded 5 points to 71.6. Its future confidence edged down 1.2 points to 66.7.

In Utica, current confidence descended 5.7 points to 68.2. Future confidence dipped 4.4 points to 60.3.

Current consumer confidence increased in Binghamton by 1.9 points to 71.3. But future confidence ticked down 1.4 points to 62.3.

Buying plans

SRI also surveyed consumers in the state’s nine metropolitan areas about their plans for making major purchases in five different categories. The institute asked if consumers plan to buy a car or truck, a computer, furniture, a home, or a major home improvement in the next six months.

The portion of consumers planning to make major purchases decreased in 30 of the 45 possible categories across the state. It increased in 14 categories and stayed the same in one.

Consumers in the Syracuse MSA cut back on plans to purchase cars and trucks, computers, and furniture. They boosted plans to buy homes and major home improvements.

“[In] Syracuse, you were kind of mixed, but still a little bit on the low side,” Lonnstrom says.

SRI’s survey found that 11.9 percent of Syracuse–area consumers plan to buy a car or truck, down 2 points from the first quarter of 2012. The reading is also lower than the survey’s historical average of 12.8 percent.

Only 9.2 percent of the region’s consumers plan to buy a computer, a drop of 2.6 points from the previous quarter and below the historical average of 10.5 percent. And 11.9 percent of consumers expect to buy furniture, down 3.2 points from last quarter and under the survey’s 14.8 percent historical average.

The news was better for Central New York’s housing market, as 3.4 percent of consumers planned to buy homes, up 0.6 points from the first quarter of 2012. That was slightly below the survey’s historical average of 3.6 percent.

Major home improvements also received a boost, with 16.8 percent of consumers planning to make purchases in that category. That’s up 1.3 points from last quarter but still less than the survey’s historical average of 19.5 percent.