Consumer confidence rose 3.5 points in upstate New York in April to largely recover from a drop in March.
Upstate’s overall consumer confidence increased to 71.4, as measured by a monthly index from the Siena (College) Research Institute (SRI). The 3.5 point increase in April nearly erases a four point drop that took place in March.
Most of the April gain came from consumers’ future outlook. Upstate’s future confidence index jumped 5.6 points to 71.3, while its current confidence index crept up 0.3 points to 71.6.
All of the region’s consumer confidence results remain below the SRI index’s break-even point of 75 — the point at which consumer are equally optimistic and pessimistic. Index results below 75 show prevailing pessimism. Results above 75 would show largely optimistic consumers.
Statewide, consumer confidence dropped. Overall confidence slipped 1.7 points to 74.6. New York’s future confidence dipped 0.2 points to 76.9, and its current confidence fell four points to 71.
Higher gas prices in April likely contributed to the decline in the state’s consumer confidence, according to Douglas Lonnstrom, professor of statistics and finance at Siena College and SRI founding director. Upstate’s confidence boost is surprising in the face of increased prices at the pump, he says.
“Gas prices have come down in the last week, but that’s not really reflected in these figures,” Lonnstrom says. “If gas prices continue to go down, that would be very good for consumer confidence in the future.”
Overall national consumer confidence inched up 0.2 points to 76.4, according to the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index. Future confidence moved up 2.5 points to 72.3, and current confidence fell 3.1 points to 82.9.
SRI calculated its consumer confidence index after surveying New York 805 residents over the age of 18 in April.
Contact Seltzer at rseltzer@cnybj.com