Upstate consumer confidence slips again in August

Residents of upstate New York reduced their willingness to spend in August, closing an up-and-down summer on a low consumer-confidence note.

Measurements from the Siena (College) Research Institute (SRI) show Upstate’s overall consumer-confidence index dropped 4.6 points to 66.7. That’s following a July in which confidence moved up 2.1 points and a June in which it fell 5.5 points.

August’s 4.6 point slide moved the upstate region away from the SRI index’s break-even point of 75 — the position at which consumers are equally optimistic and pessimistic. Index results below 75 illustrate largely pessimistic consumers, while results above the mark show optimistic ones.

Overall upstate consumer confidence dipped as the index’s two components, current confidence and future confidence, also declined. Current upstate consumer confidence slid 4.2 points to 72. Future confidence declined 4.8 points to 63.3.

Upstate New Yorkers helped drag down confidence in the state as a whole. Statewide, consumer confidence fell by 1.5 points to 73.9. The state’s current-confidence index slipped 1.9 points to 73.1, and its future confidence deflated by 1.3 points to 74.4.

Metropolitan New York City, on the other hand, managed to avoid a drain on consumers’ willingness to spend in August. Overall confidence in the area edged up 0.7 points to 78.4. Its current confidence did not change, holding steady at 74.3, while its future confidence rose 1.2 points to 81.

The nation’s consumer confidence fared slightly better than New York State’s confidence, according to polling from the University of Michigan. Its Consumer Sentiment Index showed that overall confidence in the U.S. increased 2 points to 74.3. Current confidence jumped 6 points to 88.7, and future confidence ticked down 0.5 points to 65.1.

New York’s statewide consumer confidence eroded as consumers saw little change in economic indicators, according to Douglas Lonnstrom, professor of statistics and finance at Siena College and SRI founding director.

“Everything kind of stayed flat,” he says. “Unemployment stayed the same. The housing market isn’t different. The stock market is drifting. We’re down a point-and-a-half, and I attribute almost all of that to gas prices, particularly Upstate.”

Gas and food prices

More upstate residents reported financial hardships caused by higher prices at the pump in August. SRI found that 70 percent of upstate residents called gasoline prices a problem, up from 59 percent in July.

Concern over rising food prices also climbed in the region, but at a slower rate. In August, 71 percent of upstate residents named food prices as a problem, up from 68 percent in July. And 59 percent called both gas and food prices a problem in August, up from 51 percent the month before.

Worries about the price of gas, which is a single commodity, tend to fluctuate more rapidly than concern over supermarket costs, Lonnstrom says.

“We are flirting with that $4 per gallon of gas figure,” he says. “Food prices don’t move nearly as fast as gas prices. Food is different because there are so many different commodities in your food budget.”

Statewide, 60 percent of residents cited gasoline prices as a problem in August, up from 56 percent the previous month. A higher portion, 66 percent, called food prices a burden, although that measurement is down from July, when 68 percent of state residents described food prices as a problem. The portion citing both gas and food prices as a difficulty was 49 percent in August, up from 47 percent the previous month.

New York buying plans

The state’s consumers expressed increased interest in buying computers, cars, and trucks in August, according to SRI. They cut plans to purchase furniture, homes, and major home improvements.

Consumers drove up buying plans for cars and trucks by 0.7 points in August so that 11 percent said they planned to purchase a vehicle. Buying plans for computers clicked up 2.3 points to 17.6 percent.

Plans to buy furniture shed 0.1 point to 19.8 percent. Home-buying plans sagged by 0.5 points to 3.7 percent, and consumers scraped back on plans to purchase major home improvements by 2.2 points. In August, 15.2 percent of consumers reported plans to buy major home improvements.

SRI made random telephone calls to 803 New York residents over the age of 18 during the month of August to develop its confidence index. A margin of error does not apply to the confidence-index results, according to the institute. Buying plans have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 points.       

Contact Seltzer at rseltzer@cnybj.com

Residents of upstate New York reduced their willingness to spend in August, closing an up-and-down summer on a low consumer-confidence note.

Measurements from the Siena (College) Research Institute (SRI) show Upstate’s overall consumer-confidence index dropped 4.6 points to 66.7. That’s following a July in which confidence moved up 2.1 points and a June in which it fell 5.5 points.

August’s 4.6 point slide moved the upstate region away from the SRI index’s break-even point of 75 — the position at which consumers are equally optimistic and pessimistic. Index results below 75 illustrate largely pessimistic consumers, while results above the mark show optimistic ones.

Overall upstate consumer confidence dipped as the index’s two components, current confidence and future confidence, also declined. Current upstate consumer confidence slid 4.2 points to 72. Future confidence declined 4.8 points to 63.3.

Upstate New Yorkers helped drag down confidence in the state as a whole. Statewide, consumer confidence fell by 1.5 points to 73.9. The state’s current-confidence index slipped 1.9 points to 73.1, and its future confidence deflated by 1.3 points to 74.4.

Metropolitan New York City, on the other hand, managed to avoid a drain on consumers’ willingness to spend in August. Overall confidence in the area edged up 0.7 points to 78.4. Its current confidence did not change, holding steady at 74.3, while its future confidence rose 1.2 points to 81.

The nation’s consumer confidence fared slightly better than New York State’s confidence, according to polling from the University of Michigan. Its Consumer Sentiment Index showed that overall confidence in the U.S. increased 2 points to 74.3. Current confidence jumped 6 points to 88.7, and future confidence ticked down 0.5 points to 65.1.

New York’s statewide consumer confidence eroded as consumers saw little change in economic indicators, according to Douglas Lonnstrom, professor of statistics and finance at Siena College and SRI founding director.

“Everything kind of stayed flat,” he says. “Unemployment stayed the same. The housing market isn’t different. The stock market is drifting. We’re down a point-and-a-half, and I attribute almost all of that to gas prices, particularly Upstate.”

Gas and food prices

More upstate residents reported financial hardships caused by higher prices at the pump in August. SRI found that 70 percent of upstate residents called gasoline prices a problem, up from 59 percent in July.

Concern over rising food prices also climbed in the region, but at a slower rate. In August, 71 percent of upstate residents named food prices as a problem, up from 68 percent in July. And 59 percent called both gas and food prices a problem in August, up from 51 percent the month before.

Worries about the price of gas, which is a single commodity, tend to fluctuate more rapidly than concern over supermarket costs, Lonnstrom says.

“We are flirting with that $4 per gallon of gas figure,” he says. “Food prices don’t move nearly as fast as gas prices. Food is different because there are so many different commodities in your food budget.”

Statewide, 60 percent of residents cited gasoline prices as a problem in August, up from 56 percent the previous month. A higher portion, 66 percent, called food prices a burden, although that measurement is down from July, when 68 percent of state residents described food prices as a problem. The portion citing both gas and food prices as a difficulty was 49 percent in August, up from 47 percent the previous month.

New York buying plans

The state’s consumers expressed increased interest in buying computers, cars, and trucks in August, according to SRI. They cut plans to purchase furniture, homes, and major home improvements.

Consumers drove up buying plans for cars and trucks by 0.7 points in August so that 11 percent said they planned to purchase a vehicle. Buying plans for computers clicked up 2.3 points to 17.6 percent.

Plans to buy furniture shed 0.1 point to 19.8 percent. Home-buying plans sagged by 0.5 points to 3.7 percent, and consumers scraped back on plans to purchase major home improvements by 2.2 points. In August, 15.2 percent of consumers reported plans to buy major home improvements.

SRI made random telephone calls to 803 New York residents over the age of 18 during the month of August to develop its confidence index. A margin of error does not apply to the confidence-index results, according to the institute. Buying plans have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 points.       

Contact Seltzer at rseltzer@cnybj.com