Upstate consumer confidence swings up in September

Consumer confidence turned back up among upstate New Yorkers in September, nearly recovering from a decrease in residents’ willingness to spend recorded the previous month.

Upstate’s overall consumer confidence index jumped 4.3 points to 71, according to the latest monthly poll released this morning by the Siena (College) Research Institute (SRI). That nearly made up for a 4.6-point drop in August.

It also moved the region’s overall consumer confidence back toward its break-even point — the point at which consumers are equally optimistic and pessimistic. That point is about 76, according to Douglas Lonnstrom, professor of statistics and finance at Siena College and SRI founding director. Consumer confidence results above 76 indicate mostly optimistic consumers, while results below that point illustrate higher levels of pessimism.

Hopes for the future drove the increase in overall confidence Upstate. The region’s future confidence spiked seven points to 70.3, even as its current confidence held steady from last month at 72.

“The future component for some groups took really big jumps,” Lonnstrom says.

Confidence moved up across the state. Overall confidence increased 4.3 points to 78.2 in SRI’s statewide index. State residents’ current confidence edged up 1.9 points to 75, and their future confidence increased 5.9 points to 80.3.

The nation also saw an increase in overall confidence, according to the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index. That index indicated overall confidence climbed four points to 78.3. Its current confidence indicator slipped three points to 85.7, but its future indicator rocketed up 8.4 points to 73.5.

SRI made random telephone calls to 800 New York residents over the age of 18 during the month of September to develop its confidence index.

Contact Seltzer at rseltzer@cnybj.com