New York consumers’ felt better about economic conditions in May and boosted their plans to buy a range of goods and services. Consumer sentiment in upstate New York rose 6.2 points to 75.4 in May, according to the latest monthly survey the Siena (College) Research Institute (SRI) released June 5. Upstate’s overall-sentiment index of 75.4 […]
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New York consumers’ felt better about economic conditions in May and boosted their plans to buy a range of goods and services.
Consumer sentiment in upstate New York rose 6.2 points to 75.4 in May, according to the latest monthly survey the Siena (College) Research Institute (SRI) released June 5.
Upstate’s overall-sentiment index of 75.4 is a combination of the current sentiment and future-sentiment components. Upstate’s current-sentiment index of 81.1 increased 3.8 points from April, while the future-sentiment level rose 7.8 points to 71.8.
Upstate’s overall sentiment was 0.6 points below the statewide consumer-sentiment level of 76, which edged up 1.6 points from April.
New York’s consumer-sentiment index was 5.9 points lower than the May figure of 81.9 for the entire nation, which fell 2.2 points from April, as measured by the University of Michigan’s consumer-sentiment index.
Even though national consumer sentiment slipped in May, New Yorkers’ attitudes toward economic conditions rose moderately, Douglas Lonnstrom, professor of statistics and finance at Siena College and SRI founding director, said in the news release.
“Where often New York City residents are far more bullish than Upstaters, this month their views are quite similar. The big divide is between upper income residents whose sentiment is 17 points higher and rising, and lower income New Yorkers who saw a six point decline,” Lonnstrom said.
More than half of lower income residents say that their personal financial situation has deteriorated over the past 12 months. Just over one quarter of higher-income New Yorkers share that view.
The Siena survey also found twice as many upper-income residents say they had recent financial improvement compared with lower-income New Yorkers.
“And asked to forecast coming business conditions, lower income residents see a half empty glass while upper income New Yorkers expect good times this coming year by a solid plurality,” Lonnstrom added.
When compared with the previous three years, the state’s overall-confidence sentiment of 76 is down 1.2 points from May 2013, down 0.6 points from May 2012, and has increased 8.4 points compared to May 2011, according to the SRI data. The sentiment index measured 67.6 in May 2009.
In May, buying plans were up 2.1 points to 32 percent for consumer electronics; rose 4.8 points to 23.9 for furniture; inched up 1.1 points to 5.1 percent for homes; and increased 3.4 points to 20.3 percent for major home improvements. Buying plans were down 0.1 points to 10.5 percent for cars and trucks.
“Plans for major home improvements at over 20 percent hit a five year high and home buying rose to just over five percent and has once again approached the five year high. Strong sales related to homes will provide a rippling jolt to our still lagging economy,” Lonnstrom said.
Gas and food prices
In SRI’s monthly analysis of gas and food prices, 67 percent of upstate respondents said the price of gas was having a serious impact on their monthly budgets, down from 69 percent in April.
In addition, 58 percent of statewide respondents indicated concern about the price of gas, up from 56 percent in April, according to SRI.
“For gas that makes sense because we [upstate residents] use much more gas for cars up here. People in New York City don’t have cars,” he says.
When asked about food prices, 68 percent of upstate respondents indicated the price of groceries was having a serious impact on their finances, down from 70 percent in April.
About 64 percent of statewide respondents expressed concern about their food bills, down from 69 percent in April.
“The impact of food prices on the monthly budget was down by five points this month driven more by a seven point breather among higher income residents than by the two point drop among lower income New Yorkers. Still, worries over gasoline were up two points and at its highest point since late last summer,” Lonnstrom said.
SRI conducted its survey of consumer sentiment in May by random telephone calls to 631 New York residents over the age of 18.
As consumer sentiment is expressed as an index number developed after statistical calculations to a series of questions, “margin of error” does not apply, SRI says.
Buying plans, which are shown as a percentage based on answers to specific questions, have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 points.
Contact Reinhardt at ereinhardt@cnybj.com
